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As On 24-Nov-2020 12:06 PM
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  • Government Can Keep fiscal deficit at 4% of GDP

    The State Bank of India (SBI), in a latest update of its research report Ecowrap stated that given the increased growth concerns that the country is facing, and given that India has embarked on a new indirect tax regime and slowdown in direct taxes, the Government must chase growth. The Union Budget 2020-21 will be presented in difficult and challenging environment.

    The first issue in Budget is removing the complexities in GST. Among the major issues in GST are inadequate allocation of IGST to states and non-compliance of GSTR-1 and GSTR-3B. This mainly happens in case of Business to Consumers transactions as IGST is collected in the state producing the good while the input tax credit will be collected in the state where consumption takes place. As per the CAG report for the year ended Mar’18 upto 31% of the GSTR-3B filers didn't file GSTR-1. Thus, better compliance and monitoring is possible if the GST filing is simplified for businesses and this will automatically lead to higher revenues.

    SBI research expects that Government can keep the fiscal deficit at 4% of GDP for which expenditure cut of Rs 1.5 lakh crore will be required, as the huge expenditure cut of Rs 2 lakh crore to achieve fiscal deficit of 3.8% of GDP could be significantly detrimental to future growth prospects. The value of the capital expenditure multiplier is always higher and expansion in capital expenditure would actually result in debt declining. Market borrowing of current fiscal is budgeted at Rs 7.1 lakh crore. The Government has so far done only switch worth Rs 73,000 crore and no buy-back yet. Further switch of Rs 67,000 crore using FY20 securities has been announced recently.

    In FY21, assuming 10% GDP nominal GDP growth, net Government borrowings are likely to be around Rs 5.5 lakh crore if fiscal deficit is taken at estimated 3.8% of GDP. With repayment around Rs 2.35 lakh crore, gross borrowings of the Centre are expected to come at Rs 7.85 lakh crore. In addition, states are expected to borrow Rs 7 lakh crore, thus taking the total borrowing for FY21 to be closer Rs 15 lakh crore.

    Higher fiscal deficit might push use the increase securities issued against the small savings. The Government has already raised Rs 1 lakh crore through small savings and will be able to meet their BE target of Rs 1.30 lakh crore. In FY21 again it might increase further to Rs 1.5 lakh crore. This increased reliance on small savings in turn would make it difficult for the Government to cut small savings interest rate and thus bank deposit rates are unlikely to witness a material decline.

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Flash News 24-Nov-2020
  •  ( 11:56) Arbitration Tribunal asks GMR Infra. arm, GKEL, to pay Rs 1,092 cr to SEPCO  
  •  ( 11:36) Garware Technical Fibres to consider buyback of shares on Nov. 27  
  •  ( 10:05) AU Small Finance Bank sells 4.46% stake held in Aavas Financiers  
  •  ( 09:29) Exide Inds. increases its stake in subsidiary to 80.15% for Rs 33.17 cr  
  •  ( 09:29) Strong market breadth  
  •  ( 09:25) Sensex, Nifty strike record high  
  •  ( 09:23) Nifty hits 13,000 mark  
  •  ( 09:18) Market opens on firm note  
  •  ( 08:26) Asia-Pacific stocks trading higher amid vaccine hopes  
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24 November 2020 12:06
2222.35
(1.50 %)
615.80
(3.39 %)
3096.35
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4809.25
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8795.20
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473.05
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2228.15
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1430.25
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2147.15
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476.20
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846.05
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1138.20
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195.10
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1923.90
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1136.40
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725.80
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7169.15
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17839.70
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94.20
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1939.85
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241.70
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510.85
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546.50
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2717.25
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881.25
(1.79 %)
1336.10
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4882.85
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