India automobiles industry has witnessed a far better recovery towards the end of the CY 2022, especially in the passenger vehicle segment. According to Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (SIAM) report, in the year 2022, passenger Vehicles have reported highest ever sales of 3.8 million units, which is about 4 Lakh units higher than the last peak in 2018. Commercial Vehicles reported sales of 9.3 Lakh units which, is just about 72 thousand units lower than the earlier peak in 2018. Three-Wheeler sales are still lower than 2010 sales and Two-Wheeler lower than 2014. Compared to the last calendar year, growth in Commercial Vehicles have been noteworthy, L5 category of Three-Wheelers have recovered well although from a low base of the previous year, while the Two-Wheelers have grown at a much slower pace in this calendar year, compared to the other categories of vehicles. In Q3 of FY 23, Passenger Vehicles grew by 23%, Commercial Vehicles by 17%, Three-Wheelers by 68% and Two-Wheelers by 6% compared to last year. Similarly, Tractor category also broke all records to close at 7.94 lakh vehicles in CY2022. Festive season has helped in returning good sales numbers for all the segments. However, weakness in rural demand continues, as high food inflation and increased financing cost is impacting the rural market. The PV segment has continued to show remarkable consistency in growth during the entire year. While supply woes have decreased, better product spread and ever highest consumer offers have kept consumer interest on. India is currently shifting focus to electric cars to reduce emissions. In terms of electric vehicles (EVs), in CY2022, sales reached a new high of 999,949 units, indicating a 210% Y-o-Y growth over last year’s sales of 322,871 units. A report by India Energy Storage Alliance estimated that the EV market in India is likely to increase at a CAGR of 36% until 2026. In addition, projection for the EV battery market is forecast to expand at a CAGR of 30% during the same period. The Indian government has planned US$ 3.5 billion in incentives over a five-year period until 2026 under a revamped scheme to encourage production and export of clean technology vehicles. Initiatives like Make in India, the Automotive Mission Plan 2026, and NEMMP 2020 will be a net positive for the sector.

As reported by Nikkei Asia, India becomes the world’s third-largest auto market for the first time and surpassed Japan in 2022. According to the preliminary results by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the sales of new vehicles recorded 4.25 million units in 2022, while the sales in Japan totalled 4.2 million units. India’s Auto market has fluctuated in recent years, mainly due to the credit crunch and Covid-19. However, the easing of the automotive chip crunch in 2022, helped in a significant recovery. On the back of EV sales, Indian Auto sector can expect consistency, if not a rapid growth, in the coming year.

Budget Expectations:

The Government of India launched the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in India-II (FAME-II) scheme to promote electric mobility in the country and was approved in 2019. Around 10 lakh e-two-wheelers, five lakh e-three-wheelers, 55,000 four-wheelers, and 7,000 e-buses were planned to be supported by this scheme. In addition to it, a production-linked incentive scheme for manufacturing advanced cell chemistry batteries to strengthen the EV ecosystem of the country has also been launched. The scheme focuses on bringing down the gap between EV and non-EV vehicles by solving the affordability issues. It expected to extend the validity of the scheme further ahead from March 2024 that will help reduce the high initial cost, battery replacement cost and low resale value. EVs currently attract a 5 percent GST, but the EV components are at 18 percent or 28 percent. Lowering GST for components will reduce the overall costs, along with part costs during vehicle service.

The GST rates for Hybrid vehicles are at 28%-43%, at par with ICE vehicles, though being a more sustainable option and less harmful than ICE vehicles. GST on these vehicles can also be reduced to encourage a shift from ICE vehicles to Hybrid vehicles and then eventually EV vehicles.

The industry expects more incentives and schemes like PLI in various domains of the sector. More players are entering the auto and auto components manufacturing, hence, they expect a second round of applicant selection process under the auto PLI. Another domain that requires a support is the battery manufacturing segment. There is a lack of infra and support for the manufacturers of components of batteries.

Government should focus and support the Indian-based manufacturers and help them penetrate the large overseas markets by aggressively pushing free trade agreements and cutting tariffs.

The government’s fiscal policy should help propel the Indian automobile sector become self-reliant when it comes to manufacturing of components and the entire manufacturing to be made in India. By reducing the burden of taxes in this initial phase can help the auto makers develop their technology and production abilities and bring a range of Indian automobiles brands on the global level.

Outlook:

Though the inflation in India has cooled off recently, India is still prone to the global inflation flare ups. Input costs including imports are expected to rise and at the same time elevated oil prices can add to inflation. This will have a direct impact on the price that the consumer is paying for vehicles. The industry is going through a technology transformation requiring significant investment and at the same time is facing inflationary headwinds. The manufacturers are seeking investment support and cushion from the increasing input costs. The government will surely focus on generating employment in the sector, reducing the import bills, and making the sector self-dependent. The growth of the sector completely depends on the shielding they receive from the global headwinds.