International Energy Agency or IEA has stated that world oil demand growth rebounded to 920 kb/d in 3Q25, mainly due to stronger deliveries in China. The third-quarter increase was more than double 2Q25’s 430 kb/d y-o-y expansion, as the macroeconomic picture broadly improved on easing trade tensions. Worldwide 2025 gains of 790 kb/d y-o-y are led by the United States, China and Nigeria, up by about 120 kb/d y-o-y each. Global growth will maintain this rate in 2026, at 770 kb/d y-o-y.
The relentless upturn in global oil supply paused in October at 108.2 mb/d, with OPEC+ leading a 440 kb/d monthly decline. Global oil supply was nevertheless up by a massive 6.2 mb/d since January, with gains divided evenly between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+. World oil supply is set to rise by 3.1 mb/d in 2025 and 2.5 mb/d in 2026 on average to reach 108.7 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.7 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d of the growth, respectively.
A slew of unplanned outages, scheduled maintenance and continued disruptions to Russia’s downstream operations, pushed refinery margins to a two-year peak in Europe and Asia in early November. Global refinery runs slumped by 2.9 mb/d m-o-m to 81.5 mb/d in October but are set to increase sharply towards year-end. Runs are forecast to rise by 710 kb/d in 2025 and 510 kb/d next year, to 83.6 mb/d and 84.1 mb/d, respectively.
Global observed oil inventories surged by 77.7 mb, or 2.6 mb/d, in September reaching the highest level since July 2021. Oil on water was up by a hefty 80 mb, while OECD stocks rose by a modest 5 mb and non-OECD drew by 7 mb. Over the first nine months of the year, observable inventories have risen by 313 mb, or 1.15 mb/d on average. Preliminary October data showed global stocks increased further, led by additional gains in oil on water.