International Energy Agency or IEA stated in a latest monthly update that global oil demand is forecast to increase by 740 thousand barrels per day or kb/d y-o-y in 2025, up marginally from last month's Report, with resilient deliveries in advanced economies contrasting with relatively muted consumption in emerging economies. OECD demand growth of 80 kb/d y-o-y in 1H25 has exceeded expectations, supported by lower oil prices, but is forecast to move into contraction in the remainder of the year, leaving 2025 annual oil use broadly flat.
Global oil supply inched up in August to a record 106.9 million barrels per day or mb/d as OPEC+ continued unwinding output cuts and non-OPEC+ supply hovered near all-time highs. World oil production is now projected to rise by 2.7 mb/d to 105.8 mb/d this year and 2.1 mb/d to 107.9 mb/d next year, of which non-OPEC+ countries account for 1.4 mb/d and just over 1 mb/d, respectively.
Refinery crude throughputs surged by 400 kb/d to a record 85.1 mb/d in August but is set to fall by 3.5 mb/d through October as seasonal maintenance intensifies. Global refinery crude throughputs are forecast to average 83.5 mb/d in 2025 and 84 mb/d in 2026, as growth slows from 580 kb/d to 540 kb/d, respectively. Refining margins remain strong, as a sharp deterioration in diesel cracks was partly offset by better gasoline economics.
Observed global oil stocks rose by 26.5 mb in July, extending gains since start of the year to 187 mb. Inventories remained 67 mb below the five-year average, despite a significant surplus built up in China in recent months. OECD industry stocks were up by 6.9 mb, in line with the seasonal trend. According to preliminary data for August, global oil stocks were largely unchanged as lower oil on water was offset by OECD builds.
Benchmark crude oil prices drifted lower in August, with ICE Brent futures falling by about $2/bbl m-o-m to $67/bbl. Geopolitical concerns intensified amid dwindling hopes for a near-term peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. However, the prospect of looming oversupply dampened any positive price impetus, as investor sentiment towards oil remained strongly bearish.