The United States Department of Agriculture or USDA stated in a latest monthly update that the global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for larger supplies, increased consumption and trade, and slightly higher stocks. Supplies are projected to rise 4.9 million tons to 1,073.7 million with production projected at a record 808.5 million tons, more than offsetting lower carry-in stocks. USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates for May 2025 highlighted increased output for the EU, India, the United Kingdom, China, Argentina, Russia, and Canada is expected to more than offset reductions for Kazakhstan, Australia, Pakistan, and the United States.
Beginning wheat stocks are lowered for several countries, most notably China, Turkey, and the EU. Projected 2025/26 world consumption is raised 4.4 million tons to a record 808.0 million as food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is expected to continue growing, while feed and residual use increases relatively less with ample coarse grain supplies. India and the EU have the largest increases for FSI and feed and residual, respectively.
According to USDA, the projected 2025/26 global wheat trade is 213.0 million tons, up 6.9 million from last year but well below the 2023/24 record of 222.2 million. The EU is expected to show the largest year-to-year increase among major exporters, up 7.5 million tons to 34.0 million. Russia is projected to remain the leading 2025/26 global wheat exporter at 45.0 million tons, up from 43.5 million for 2024/25. Exports are also projected higher for Argentina and Ukraine while lower for Australia, Kazakhstan, and the United States. Projected 2025/26 world ending stocks are 265.7 million tons, up 0.5 million from last year.