International Energy Agency or IEA stated in a latest monthly update that global oil demand rose seasonally in 4Q24, posting robust annual growth of 1.5 mb/d – the strongest level since 4Q23 and 260 kb/d higher than our previous forecast. Lower fuel prices, colder weather across the Northern Hemisphere and abundant petrochemical feedstocks all combined to boost consumption. Annual growth is now assessed at 940 kb/d for 2024, accelerating to 1.05 mb/d in 2025 as the economic outlook improves marginally.
World oil supply inched higher by 20 kb/d m-o-m to 103.5 mb/d in December, up 390 kb/d y-o-y, as increased output from OPEC+ African producers more than offset seasonal declines in non-OPEC+ supply. Global oil supply is projected to rise by 1.8 mb/d in 2025 to 104.7 mb/d, compared with an increase of 660 kb/d in 2024. Non-OPEC+ production is set to rise by 1.5 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025, to 53.1 mb/d and 54.6 mb/d, respectively.