Vulnerabilities in the corporate sector are increasing as the pandemic evolves and their unearthing could test the resilience of euro area banks in the future, the European Central Bank (ECB) stated in its latest Financial Stability Review (FSR). Current extensive policy support is helping euro area corporates and households to cope with the fallout of the pandemic, but risks can arise either from a premature end to measures or from prolonged support. Premature withdrawal of fiscal support – including government loan guarantees and statutory loan moratoria – could set back the economic recovery, transforming the corporate liquidity challenges observed at the outset of the pandemic turn into solvency issues.
The sharp rise in corporate and sovereign indebtedness increases the risks to financial stability from an emerging sovereign-corporate bank nexus in the medium-term, as banks and sovereigns alike are exposed to pandemic-induced risk faced by euro area firms. Bank profitability is expected to remain weak. Provisions have increased but look optimistic in some cases, while guarantees and moratoria may have lengthened the time it takes for weak economic performance to translate into loan losses, said Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB.
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