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09-Mar-2026

Credit Environment Navigates Global Uncertainty as Domestic Demand and Policy Support Sustain Momentum

Rural demand, tax relief and lower borrowing costs are expected to support consumption and credit growth, even as tariff uncertainty, softer bond issuances and cautious private capex create near-term headwinds across sectors.


'ICRA has come up with a presentation that addresses the trends in domestic credit environment.

Domestic drivers are expected to support growth, even as external outlook remains uncertain. The outlook for rural demand appears upbeat in the near term, given robust kharif output and healthy trends in rabi sowing. After the frontloading seen in H1 FY2026, the GoI’s capex is implicitly set to contract in H2 which may weigh upon growth in H2. Moreover, the ongoing US tariff-related uncertainty is likely to delay private capex plans.

The imposition of steep US tariffs has adverse implications for India’s merchandise exports in the near term, especially across some labour-intensive sectors. Nevertheless, the growth in services exports of some segments is likely to remain healthy. The combination of the GST rate rejig, sizeable income-tax relief, 125 bps policy rate cuts leading to lower borrowing costs and a moderation in food inflation is expected to augur well for urban consum...



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