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Budget Analysis

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(01 Feb 2025, 21:51)

Union Budget 2025-26: Big boost for consumption

Focus on fiscal consolidation, no income tax for income upto Rs 12 lakh leads to revenue loss of Rs 1 lakh crore


Union Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget 2025-26 giving more focus on boosting consumption. The Union Budget 2025-2026 aims to continue Government’s efforts to accelerate growth, secure inclusive development, invigorate private sector investments, uplift household sentiments, and enhance spending power of India’s rising middle class. The Budget proposes development measures focusing on poor (Garib), Youth, farmer (Annadata) and women (Nari). The Budget aims to initiate transformative reforms in Taxation, Power Sector, Urban Development, Mining, Financial Sector, and Regulatory Reforms to augment India’s growth potential and global competitiveness.

The FM outlined the broad Principles of Viksit Bharat to encompass a) Zero-poverty, b) 100% good quality school education, c) Access to high-quality, affordable, and comprehensive healthcare, d) 100% skilled labour with meaningful employment, e) 70% women in economic activities and f) Farmers making country the ‘food basket of the world.

Union Budget highlights that Agriculture, MSME, Investment, and Exports as engines in the journey to Viksit Bharat using reforms as fuel, guided by the spirit of inclusivity.

Agriculture

Budget announced ‘Prime Minister Dhan-Dhaanya Krishi Yojana’ in partnership with states covering 100 districts to increase productivity, adopt crop diversification, augment post-harvest storage, improve irrigation facilities, and facilitate availability of long-term and short-term credit.

A comprehensive multi-sectoral ‘Rural Prosperity and Resilience’ programme will be launched in partnership with states to address underemployment in agriculture through skilling, investment, technology, and invigorating the rural economy. The goal is to generate ample opportunities in rural areas, with focus on rural women, young farmers, rural youth, marginal and small farmers, and landless families.

Union FM announced that Government will launch a 6-year "Mission for Aatmanirbharta in Pulses" with special focus on Tur, Urad and Masoor. Central agencies (NAFED and NCCF) will be ready to procure these 3 pulses, as much as offered during the next 4 years from farmers.

The Budget has outlined measures to Comprehensive Programme for Vegetables & Fruits, National Mission on High Yielding Seeds, and a five year Mission for Cotton Productivity amongst other measures to promote agriculture and allied activities in a major way.

FM announced the increase in loan limits from Rs 3 lakh to Rs 5 lakh for loans taken through Kisan Credit Cards under modified interest subvention scheme.

MSMEs

FM described MSMEs as the second power engine for development as they constitute for 45% of exports. To help MSMEs achieve higher efficiencies of scale, technological upgradation and better access to capital, the investment and turnover limits for classification of all MSMEs enhanced to 2.5 and 2 times, respectively. Further, steps to enhance credit availability with guarantee cover have also been announced.

The FM also announced the launch of a new scheme for 5 lakh women, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes first-time entrepreneurs. This will provide term loans up to Rs 2 crore during the next 5 years.

FM announced that the Government will also implement a scheme to make India a global hub for toys representing the 'Made in India' brand. Government will set up a National Manufacturing Mission covering small, medium and large industries for furthering "Make in India".

Investment

Defining Investment as the third engine of growth, the Union Minister prioritized investment in people, economy and innovation.

Broadband connectivity will be provided to all Government secondary schools and primary health centres in rural areas under the Bharatnet project.

Bharatiya Bhasha Pustak Scheme will be implemented to provide digital-form Indian language books for school and higher education.

Five National Centres of Excellence for skilling will be set up with global expertise and partnerships to equip youth with the skills required for "Make for India, Make for the World" manufacturing.

A Centre of Excellence in Artificial Intelligence for education will be set up with a total outlay of 500 crore.

Budget announced that Government will arrange for Gig workers’ identity cards, their registration on the e-Shram portal and healthcare under PM Jan Arogya Yojana.

Under the investment in Economy, infrastructure-related ministries will come up with a 3-year pipeline of projects in PPP mode.

An outlay of Rs 1.5 lakh crore was proposed for the 50-year interest free loans to states for capital expenditure and incentives for reforms.

Second Asset Monetization Plan 2025-30 to plough back capital of Rs 10 lakh crore in new projects.

The Jal Jeevan Mission was extended till 2028 with focus on the quality of infrastructure and Operation & Maintenance of rural piped water supply schemes through "Jan Bhagidhari".

Government will set up an Urban Challenge Fund of Rs 1 lakh crore to implement the proposals for ‘Cities as Growth Hubs’, ‘Creative Redevelopment of Cities’ and ‘Water and Sanitation’.

Under the investment in Innovation, an allocation of Rs 20,000 crore is announced to implement private sector driven Research, Development and Innovation initiative.

National Geospatial Mission proposed to develop foundational geospatial infrastructure and data which will benefit urban planning.

Gyan Bharatam Mission, for survey, documentation and conservation of more than 1 crore manuscripts with academic institutions, museums, libraries and private collectors. A National Digital Repository of Indian knowledge systems for knowledge sharing is also proposed.

Exports

FM defined Exports as the fourth engine of growth. Ministries of Commerce, MSME, and Finance; Export Promotion Mission will jointly help MSMEs tap into the export market. A digital public infrastructure, ‘BharatTradeNet’ (BTN) for international trade was proposed as a unified platform for trade documentation and financing solutions.

Support will be provided to develop domestic manufacturing capacities for economy’s integration with global supply chains. Government will support the domestic electronic equipment industry for leveraging the opportunities related to Industry 4.0. A National Framework has also been proposed for promoting Global Capability Centres in emerging tier 2 cities.

The government will facilitate upgradation of infrastructure and warehousing for air cargo including high value perishable horticulture produce.

Reforms as the Fuel

Defining Reforms as the fuel to the engine, FM mentioned that over the past 10 years, the Government had implemented several reforms for convenience of tax payers, such as faceless assessment, tax payers charter, faster returns, almost 99% returns being on self-assessment, and Vivad se Vishwas scheme.

Financial Sector Reforms and Development

In a demonstrated steadfast commitment of the Government towards ‘Ease of Doing Business’, changes are proposed across the length and breadth of the financial landscape in India to ease compliance, expand services, build strong regulatory environment, promote international and domestic investment, and decriminalisation of archaic legal provisions.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) limit for the insurance raised from 74% to 100%, to be available for those companies that invest the entire premium in India.

FM proposed a light-touch regulatory framework based on principles and trust to unleash productivity and employment. Specific measures are proposed to develop modern, flexible, people-friendly, and trust-based regulatory framework for the 21st first century.

Fiscal Consolidation

Reiterating the commitment to stay the course for fiscal consolidation, the FM stated that the Government endeavours to keep the fiscal deficit each year such that the Central Government debt remains on a declining path as a percentage of the GDP and the detailed roadmap for the next 6 years has been detailed in the FRBM statement. FM stated that the Revised Estimate 2024-25 of fiscal deficit is 4.8% of GDP, while the Budget Estimates 2025-26 is estimated to be 4.4% of GDP.

Revised Estimates 2024-25

Revised Estimate of the total receipts other than borrowings is Rs 31.47 lakh crore, of which the net tax receipts are Rs 25.57 lakh crore. Revised Estimate of the total expenditure is Rs 47.16 lakh crore, of which the capital expenditure is about Rs 10.18 lakh crore.

Budget Estimates 2025-26

For FY 2025-26, the FM stated that the total receipts other than borrowings and the total expenditure are estimated at Rs 34.96 lakh crore and Rs 50.65 lakh crore respectively. The net tax receipts are estimated at Rs 28.37 lakh crore.

Direct and Indirect taxes

Reposing faith on middle class in nation building, the Union Budget 2025-26 proposes new direct tax slabs and rates under the new income tax regime so that no income tax is needed to be paid for total income upto Rs 12 Lakh per annum, i.e. average income of Rs 1 Lakh per month, other than special rate income such as Capital Gain. Salaried individuals earning upto Rs 12.75 Lakh per annum will pay NIL tax, due to standard deduction of Rs 75,000. Towards the new tax structure and other direct tax proposals, Government is set to lose revenue of about Rs 1 lakh crore.

Government has taken steps to understand the needs voiced by the people. The direct tax proposals include personal income tax reform with special focus on middle class, TDS/TCS rationalization, encouragement to voluntary compliances along with reduction of compliance burden, ease of doing business and incentivizing employment and investment.

To rationalize TDS/TCS, Budget doubles limit for tax deduction on interest earned by senior citizens from the present Rs 50,000 to Rs 1 Lakh. Further, TDS threshold on rent has been increased to Rs 6 Lakh from Rs 2.4 Lakh per annum. Other measures include, increasing of threshold to collect TCS to Rs 10 Lakh and continuing with higher TDS deductions only in non-PAN cases. After the decriminalization of delay in payment of TDS, delay in TCS payments has now been decriminalized.

Encouraging voluntary compliance, Budget extends time-limit to file updated returns for any assessment year, from the current limit of two years, to four years. Over 90 Lakh taxpayers paid additional tax to update their income. Small charitable trusts/institutions have been given the benefit by increasing their period of registration from 5 to 10 years, reducing compliance burden. Further, tax payers can now claim annual value of two self-occupied properties as NIL, without any condition. Last budget’s Vivad Se Vishwas Scheme has received a great response, with nearly 33,000 tax payers having availed the scheme to settle their disputes. Giving benefits to senior and very senior citizens, withdrawals made from National Savings Scheme Accounts on or after 29th of August, 2024 have been exempted. NPS Vatsalya accounts also to get similar benefits.

For ease of doing business, Budget introduces a scheme for determining arm's length price of international transaction for a block period of three years. This is in line with global best practices. Further, self harbor rules are being expanded to provide certainty in international taxation.

To promote employment and investment, a presumptive taxation regime is envisaged for non-residents who provide services to a resident company that is establishing or operating an electronics manufacturing facility. Further, benefits of existing tonnage tax scheme are proposed to be extended to inland vessels. To promote start-up ecosystem, period of incorporation has been extended for a period of 5 years. To promote investment in the infrastructure sector, Budget extends the date of making investment in Sovereign Wealth Funds and Pension Funds by five more years, to 31st March, 2030.

As part of rationalization of Customs tariffs of industrial goods, Budget proposes to; (i) Remove seven tariffs, (ii) apply appropriate cess to maintain effective duty incidence, and (iii) levy not more than one cess or surcharge.

As relief on import of Drugs/Medicines, 36 lifesaving drugs and medicines for treating cancer, rare diseases and chronic diseases have been fully exempted from Basic Customs Duty (BCD). Further, 37 medicines along with 13 new drugs and medicines under Patient Assistance Programmes have been exempted from Basic Customs Duty (BCD), if supplied free to patients.

To support Domestic Manufacturing and Value Addition, BCD on 25 critical minerals, that were not domestically available, were exempted in July 2024. The Budget 2025-26 fully exempts cobalt powder and waste, scrap of lithium-ion battery, Lead, Zinc and 12 more critical minerals. To promote domestic textile production, two more types of shuttle-less looms added to fully exempted textile machinery. Further, BCD on knitted fabrics covering nine tariff lines from "10% to 20%" revised to "20% or Rs 115 kg, whichever is higher".

To rectify inverted duty structure and promote "Make in India", BCD on Interactive Flat Panel Display (IFPD) increased to 20% and on Open cells reduced to 5%. Further to promote manufacture of Open cells, BCD on parts of Open Cells stands exempted.

To boost manufacturing of Lithion-ion battery in the country, 35 additional capital goods for EV battery manufacturing, and 28 additional capital goods for mobile phone battery manufacturing added to the list of exempted capital goods. Union Budget 2025-26 also continues exemption on BCD on raw materials, components, consumables or parts for ship building for another ten years. Budget also reduced BCD from 20% to 10% on Carrier Grade ethernet switches to make it at par with Non-Carrier Grade ethernet switches.

For export promotion, Budget 2025-26 facilitates exports of handicrafts, fully exempts BCD on Wet Blue leather for value addition and employment, reduce BCD from 30% to 5% on Frozen Fish Paste and reduce BCD from 15% to 5% on fish hydrolysate for manufacture of fish and shrimp feeds.

Democracy, Demography and Demand are key pillars of Viksit Bharat journey. The middle class gives strength of India’s growth and the Government has periodically hiked the ‘Nil tax’ slab in recognition to their contribution. The proposed new tax structure will substantially boost consumption, savings and investment, by putting more money in the hands of the middle class.

Union Budget 2025-26 at a Glance
Sr No. Particulars 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 Var. (%)
Actual BE RE BE 2024-25 2025-26
1 Revenue Receipts 2729036 3129200 3087960 3420409 13.2 10.8
2. Tax Revenue (Net to Centre) 2327251 2583499 2556960 2837409 9.9 11.0
3. Non-Tax Revenue 401785 545701 531000 583000 32.2 9.8
4 Capital Receipts 1714411 1691312 1628527 1644936 -5.0 1.0
5. Recovery of Loans 26646 28000 26000 29000 -2.4 11.5
6. Other Receipts 33122 50000 33000 47000 -0.4 42.4
7. Borrowings and Other Liabilitites 1654643 1613312 1569527 1568936 -5.1 0.0
8 Total Receipts (1+4) 4443447 4820512 4716487 5065345 6.1 7.4
9 Total Expenditure (10+13) 4443447 4820512 4716487 5065345 6.1 7.4
10 On Revenue Account 3494252 3709401 3698058 3944255 5.8 6.7
11. Interest Payments 1063872 1162940 1137940 1276338 7.0 12.2
12. Grants in Aid for creation of capital assets 303916 390778 299891 427192 -1.3 42.4
13 On Capital Account 949195 1111111 1018429 1121090 7.3 10.1
Effective Capital Expenditure (12+13) 1253111 1501889 1318320 1548282 5.2 17.4
14 Revenue Deficit (10-1) 765216 580201 610098 523846 -20.3 -14.1
2.6 1.8 1.9 1.5
15 Effective Revenue Deficit (14-12) 461300 189423 310207 96654 -32.8 -68.8
1.6 0.6 1 0.3
16 Fiscal Deficit [9-(1+5+6)] 1654643 1613312 1569527 1568936 -5.1 0.0
5.6 4.9 4.8 4.4
17 Primary Deficit (16-11) 590771 450372 431587 292598 -26.9 -32.2
2.0 1.4 1.3 0.8
Figures in Rs crore; Source: Union Budget 2025-26

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