Food and Agriculture Organization or FAO has slightly lowered its estimate for global cereal production in 2024 by 1.1 million tonnes compared to the April figure. The global cereal output is now pegged at 2848 million tonnes, remaining marginally lower year on year, largely due to a reduced world maize outturn. FAO’s forecasts of rice production in 2024/25 have changed only marginally since April. As a result, and largely due to a robust expansion in area planted, global rice output is forecast to expand by 1.5 percent year-on-year in 2024/25 to reach an all-time high of 543.6 million tonnes (milled basis).
The world cereal utilization for 2024/25 is forecast at 2 870 million tonnes, an increase of 1.9 million tonnes from last month and 28.2 million tonnes (1.0 percent) above the 2023/24 level. Global wheat utilization for 2024/25 is raised by 1.8 million tonnes, primarily reflecting higher expected use in Argentina and the European Union, bringing the forecast to 797 million tonnes, up fractionally (0.1 percent) from previous season. FAO’s projection for global coarse grain utilization in 2024/25 remains nearly unchanged at 1 534 million tonnes, indicating to a 1.1 percent growth from the 2023/24 level. The anticipated increase is mostly driven by higher feed use of maize, especially in China and the Russian Federation.
The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of season in 2025 is lowered further this month, by 5.1 million tonnes, bringing the forecast to 868.2 million tonnes, indicating a decline of 16.6 million tonnes (1.9 percent) below opening levels. The latest forecasts indicate that the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2024/25 would stand at 29.9 percent, down from 30.8 percent in 2023/24, but still at a relatively comfortable level. Global wheat stocks are revised down by 1.9 million tonnes this month, mostly reflecting lower stock estimates in the European Union and Türkiye.