The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has stated in a latest monthly update that the global trade of oilseeds and oilseed meals reflects higher demand growth in protein meal consumption spurred by relatively lower feed prices. Higher beginning stocks and rising soybean production in South America boost exportable supply. Therefore, despite higher global demand, the US share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent, down from 28 percent last year.
Global 2025/26 oilseed production is projected at 692.1 million tons, up 2 percent from last marketing year. Global soybean production is forecast at 426.8 million tons, up 1 percent, with higher production for Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, and China partly offset by lower production for the United States, Canada, Argentina, Ukraine, and Uruguay. Brazil’s soybean production is projected at a record 175 million tons, up 6 million from the prior year. Argentina’s soybean production is forecast at 48.5 million tons, down 0.5 million, as area shifts from soybeans to corn.
US soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 295 million bushels, down 55 million from the revised 2024/25 forecast. The 2025/26 US season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, compared with $9.95 per bushel in 2024/25. The soybean meal price is forecast at $310 per short ton, up $10. The soybean oil price is forecast at 46 cents per pound, up 1 cent from the prior year.