The World Bank’s metals and minerals price index is forecast to fall by 5 percent in 2025 and a further 3 percent in 2026, with the steepest declines anticipated for aluminum, copper, iron ore, and zinc. These projections reflect a weakening global demand outlook over the forecast period, including a slowdown in China, the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. The World Bank cites main downside risk - a sharper-than-expected slowdown in global growth, as metals demand is closely linked to investment activity and durable goods consumption—both highly sensitive to economic conditions. A deeper global slowdown, particularly in the presence of ample supplies, could place significant downward pressure on base metal prices, the Bank said. On the upside, a durable rollback of trade tensions, along with reduced policy uncertainty, could improve demand prospects, the entity noted.
Meanwhile, the escalation of trade tensions in early April, along with deterioration in the global economic outlook, pushed global manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) into contractionary territory in April for the first time this year. Meanwhile, growth in China—the world’s largest metals consumer—is projected to slow further in the coming years, weighed down by higher trade barriers, weaker external demand, and subdued domestic consumption, despite announced policy support. Persistent weakness in China’s property sector is also curbing demand for construction-related base metals, including iron ore. Even so, increased investment in renewable energy infrastructure is expected to offer some support, particularly for metals such as copper, the World Bank noted in a blog post.