The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) July update stated that global inflation is expected to continue to decline, with headline inflation falling to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026. This is virtually unchanged from the April WEO, with trends of cooling demand and falling energy prices remaining in place. The overall picture hides cross-country variation in forecasts, however. The tariffs, acting as a supply shock, are expected to pass through to US consumer prices gradually and hit inflation in the second half of 2025. Elsewhere, the tariffs constitute a negative demand shock, lowering inflationary pressures. Inflation is projected to remain above the 2 percent target through 2026 in the United States, whereas in the euro area inflationary dynamics are expected to be more subdued, in part on account of currency appreciation and one-off fiscal measures.
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