Rodrigo Valdes, Director of Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted in his briefing on Latin America and the Caribbean that the fund expects average growth in the region to moderate. For Latin America and the Caribbean, on average, IMF expects growth to slow down from 2.4 percent last year to 2 percent this year, 2025 -- against 2.5 that it were expecting six months ago. After that, growth will edge back to 2.4 percent.
Activity has remained largely driven by consumption in the region amid resilient labor markets. However, slower global growth, elevated uncertainty, the impact of tariffs and tighter domestic policies in some countries will weight on growth. Behind this average, there is significant heterogeneity. Following tight macro policies and, of course, being more affected by US trade policies, Mexico's GDP is expected to decline slightly this year. IMF also continues to expect a relevant deceleration in Brazil driven by, let me underscore, appropriate tighter policies in Argentina and Ecuador, which have programs supported by the IMF, we expect an important rebound this year.
On the inflation front, convergence to targets last year was relatively slow, slower than before. Fading global disinflation was behind this and also effects in the region that was depreciating. Though that the declining inflation should continue, although most countries will not reach their targets before 2026, according to Valdes.