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Commodity Mid Session News

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(08 May 2025, 15:01)

Market Speak: EIA cuts oil price forecast for 2025 & 2026; rising supply & tariffs dent outlook


The US EIA, in its May Short-Term Energy Outlook, sees Brent crude prices sliding through 2025 and 2026 as global oil production outpaces demand growth. Brent averaged $68 per barrel in April, down $5 from March—marking the third monthly drop—driven by weaker demand expectations amid new US-led tariffs and accelerated OPEC+ output. The agency now forecasts Brent to average $62 in the second half of 2025 and fall further to $59 in 2026, sharply lower than last month’s projections. Inventories are expected to build steadily, growing by 0.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 0.8 million in 2026. While supply pressures dominate, the EIA warns of deep uncertainty linked to tariffs, sanctions on Russia and Iran, and the phasing out of Venezuelan crude exports. The agency also highlights that OPEC+ discipline in unwinding production cuts will be crucial in shaping the price path ahead.
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