According to the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), global liquid fuels production is set to surge, increasing by 2.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and another 1.1 mb/d in 2026. Non-OPEC+ producers such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will account for most of this growth, contributing 1.7 mb/d in 2025. OPEC+ production will rise more moderately, by 0.6 mb/d in 2025, as the group aims to manage inventory builds and prevent further oil price drops. On the demand side, global liquid fuels consumption is expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2025 and 1.3 mb/d in 2026, primarily driven by non-OECD countries. India and China will be key contributors, with each adding around 0.4–0.5 mb/d of additional consumption from 2024 through 2026. The STEO highlights a clear imbalance: supply is accelerating faster than demand, likely putting additional pressure on oil prices in the coming years.
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