The International Energy Agency has upgraded its outlook for global oil demand in 2026, lifting its forecast for average demand growth to 930,000 barrels per day from 860,000 bpd, an upward revision of 70,000 bpd or about 8.1%. The revision reflects stronger expectations for global consumption and improving market fundamentals. A recovery in petrochemical feedstock demand is expected to support growth, although gains will be partly offset by a continued slowdown in gasoline demand. As in previous years, all of the demand growth in 2026 is projected to come from non-OECD economies. On the supply side, global oil output fell by 350,000 bpd month-on-month to 107.4 million bpd in December, remaining 1.6 million bpd below the record high reached in September. Lower production in Kazakhstan and several Middle Eastern OPEC producers was partly offset by a rebound in Russian output. Global oil supply is forecast to rise by 2.5 million bpd this year to 108.7 million bpd, following a 3 million bpd increase in 2025, with non-OPEC+ producers accounting for the bulk of the gains. Oil prices were volatile at the start of the year, jumping by about $6 per barrel on geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Venezuela before easing as concerns moderated. North Sea Dated crude averaged $62.64 per barrel in December, down $0.99 from the previous month, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline.
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