In its February 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA predicts that OPEC+ production cuts will tighten global oil inventories, keeping crude oil prices steady through the first quarter of 2025. However, as production ramps up and demand growth remains subdued, inventories are expected to rise in the latter half of 2025, driving Brent crude prices down to an average of $74 per barrel in 2025 and $66 per barrel in 2026, compared to $80 per barrel in 2024. Meanwhile, the EIA highlights the uncertainty surrounding new tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, as well as sanctions on Russia’s oil sector. While these measures might alter trade routes, they are not expected to significantly impact global supply.
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