Global coal demand is forecast to edge down through the end of this decade as competition intensifies with other power sources – including renewables, natural gas and nuclear – according to the 2025 edition of the International Energy Association or IEA’s annual market report. Coal 2025, report explores current market dynamics and provides forecasts through 2030 for demand, supply and trade at the global and regional level. It also examines key trends in investment, costs and pricing.
The report finds that global coal demand is on course to rise by 0.5% in 2025, reaching a record 8.85 billion tonnes. In several major markets, consumption patterns diverged from their recent trends. In India, an early and intense monsoon season resulted in a decline in annual coal use for only the third time in five decades. In the United States, higher natural gas prices and policy measures that slowed coal plant retirements lifted coal consumption, which had been on a downward trajectory for the previous 15 years.
IEA noted that after two years of double-digit declines, coal demand in the European Union shrank only modestly. At the same time, in China, coal use remained broadly unchanged from its 2024 level.By 2030, however, global coal demand is expected to have ticked lower, returning to the same level as in 2023. This is largely driven by shifts in the power sector, which accounts for two-thirds of total coal consumption today. With renewable capacity surging, nuclear expanding steadily, and a huge wave of liquefied natural gas coming to market, coal-fired power generation is forecast to decline from 2026 onward. Coal demand from industry is expected to remain more resilient.