Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC has stated in a monthly update that the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’ assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.
OPEC noted that Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, revised up slightly by around 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment, mainly due to received historical data in 2025. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 remains at 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.6 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 73 tb/d in October, m-o-m, to average about 43.02 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
The OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,331 mb. This was 21.3 mb higher than a year ago, but 29.6 mb below the latest five-year average, and 103.9 mb less than the 2015-2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,513 mb. This is 16.4 mb higher than a year ago, 7.3 mb above the latest five-year average, but 18.4 mb below the 2015-2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days, m-o-m, in September, to stand at 61.3 days. This is 0.6 days higher than a year ago, but 2.0 days less than the latest five-year average, and 1.2 days lower than the 2015-2019 average.