International Monetary Fund has stated that crude oil prices decreased 5.4 percent between March 2025 and August 2025 as tepid global demand growth and strong supply growth from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ contributed to bringing prices down. Barring the temporary price spike in mid-June from the Israel-Iran war, oil prices have been range-bound, trading between $60 and $70 since the US announcement of tariffs in early April. The tariff announcements induced a decrease in global demand expectations and coincided with the start of an accelerated production schedule from OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus selected nonmember countries, including Russia).
Bearish fundamentals are now mostly in focus: The International Energy Agency is forecasting 0.7 mb/d (million barrels per day) of global demand growth in 2025 and 1.4 mb/d of non-OPEC+ supply growth, while the latest OPEC+ production schedule gradually brought back 2.5 mb/d through September, one year ahead of schedule, with plans to further increase production. Talks to find a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine have stalled, increasing the risk of US secondary sanctions. US futures markets indicate that oil prices will average $68.90 per barrel in 2025, a 12.9 percent decline from the previous year, before decreasing to $65.80 in 2026 and steadily increasing to $67.30 through 2030.