Global mining major Glencore has offered a detailed analysis of global Copper markets in a latest update. The company noted that LME copper cash price started the year at $8,692/t, below the 2024 average of $9,143/t, as the strong US dollar weighed on prices and the outlook for possible US tariffs and evolving trade policies produced cautious positioning. Mine supply growth improved into year-end 2024, with a corresponding increase in smelter and refinery production. This resulted in a higher level of visible inventories, relative to recent years, heading into the Lunar New Year period in early 2025. Industrial demand remained robust during the reporting period, particularly in China, supported by the energy transition sector and related infrastructure investment, as well as fiscal stimulus measures, contributing to a reduction of visible copper inventories following the seasonal build in Q1 2025.
The prospect of potential tariffs prompted a wave of accelerated orders from the manufacturing sector for imports into the US, driving prices steadily toward the $10,000/t level by late March. Prices continued to be supported by regional demand imbalances due to evolving trade policies, with the CME-LME arbitrage continuing to attract refined metal into the US. The LME copper cash price ended the period around $10,000/t. The concentrates market remained in a significant deficit, given the continued expansion of smelter capacity, coupled with constrained mine supply growth. Competition for concentrates continues to weigh on smelter economics, with the 2025 benchmark treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) between major miners and Chinese smelters concluding at $21.25/2.125c per tonne of concentrate, while spot TC/RCs for clean concentrate buying by Chinese smelters, progressively dropped from $5/0.5c at the beginning of the year to all-time lows of $-45/-4.5c by the end of the reporting period.
Glencore noted that it continues to expect mine supply growth to be constrained by aging assets, a challenging project pipeline and geopolitical factors, with new projects likely to experience delays. In the near term, global demand sentiment continues to be dependent on the outlook for, and implications of, tariffs, fiscal policies and stimulus measures to support economic growth. In the longer term, demand is expected to be driven by population growth in emerging economies, supported by AI infrastructure.