Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC stated in a latest monthly update that the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y. This minor adjustment is mainly due to received data for 1Q25 and the expected impact on oil demand given recently announced US tariffs. In the OECD, oil demand is expected to grow by 0.04 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to expand by almost 1.25 mb/d in 2025. The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 is revised down slightly to about 1.3 mb/d. The OECD is expected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026.
Non- Declaration of Cooperation or DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and Argentina. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 also revised down slightly to about 0.9 mb/d, with the US, Brazil, Canada and Argentina as the key drivers. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.5 mb/d. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC dropped by 37 tb/d in March, m-o-m, averaging about 41.02 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.
Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.6 mb/d in 2025. This is around 0.3 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2024. Demand for DoC crude in 2026 is revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.8 mb/d. This is around 0.3 mb/d higher than the 2025 forecast.