OPEC stated in a monthly update that the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 1.4 mb/d. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d. This robust oil demand growth is expected to continue in 2026. The global oil demand in 2026 is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d.
Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) in 2025 is forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. The non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 is also forecast to grow by at 1.1 mb/d, mainly driven by the US, Brazil and Canada. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by about 90 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.4 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026 to average 8.5 mb/d. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC dropped by 14 tb/d in December, m-o-m, averaging about 40.65 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations In December, refinery margins dropped in the US Gulf Coast (USGC) and Singapore. Weakness was seen across the barrel, except for jet/kerosene on the USGC and gasoline (92) in Singapore, as healthy refinery runs led to rising product availability while weak export incentives added to the pressure. However, in Rotterdam, refining margins extended their upward trajectory amid improved travel activities during the yearend holiday season, with gasoline, gasoil, and fuel oil (1.0% sulphur) backing the monthly gain. Global refinery intake increased further adding 1.1 mb/d, m-o-m, as offline capacities trended significantly lower in December, in line with historic data. Global intake reached an average of 82.2 mb/d in December, and was up slightly by 100 tb/d, y-o-y.