Mining major Glencore has stated in its latest Annual Report 2026 that the average LME copper price increased 9% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a market characterised by policy-driven volatility and tightening underlying fundamentals. Prices started the year below the prior-year average as a strong US dollar and uncertainty around potential US tariffs weighed on sentiment. However, prices generally trended higher over the year, supported by a weaker US dollar, continued uncertainty over US trade policy for semi-refined and refined copper, and improving confidence in China, underpinned by government policies.

It noted that tariff-related dislocations between CME and LME pricing altered global metal flows, attracting refined copper into the US, increasing volatility and driving speculative positioning to the largest net long in recent years. Rapid price appreciation then tempered refined demand from Chinese fabricators and increased scrap availability, contributing to a build-up in visible refined inventories later in the year. Despite higher inventories, copper prices remained well supported by strong structural demand from the energy transition, power-grid investment and accelerating deployment of AI infrastructure and data centres, combined with supply disruptions at several major mines.

According to Glencore, these factors sustained prices above $10,000/t for much of the year, reaching new record highs above $12,500/t later in the year. The copper concentrates market remained in a significant deficit, reflecting constrained mine supply and continued expansion in global primary smelting capacity. Intense competition for concentrates severely pressured smelter economics, with benchmark treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) settling at historically low levels, while spot TC/RCs deteriorated progressively to deeply negative levels. This persistent tightness reinforced market volatility, highlighting a structural imbalance between upstream mine supply and downstream smelting capacity and economics.