U.S. consumers' inflation expectations for the one-year ahead ticked up in August, while their hopes of finding a job sank to a record low, results of a monthly survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed on Monday, which coincided with recent readings that signaled a cooling labor market.
Median inflation expectations for the one-year ahead edged up to 3.2 percent from 3.1 percent in July, the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed. The expected inflation for the three- and five-year ahead horizons were unchanged at 3.0 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.
The latest survey was carried out among approximately 1,300 households from August 1 to August 31.
The NY Fed survey also showed that households' unemployment and job loss expectations worsened. The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the event of losing the current one fell sharply by 5.8 percentage points to 44.9 percent, which was the lowest since the series began in June 2013.
Unemployment expectations, which shows the probability that the U.S. jobless rate will be higher in a year from now, climbed by 1.7 percentage points to 39.1 percent.
The likelihood of losing one's job in the next 12 months ticked up by 0.1 percentage points to 14.5 percent, the survey found. The weakening in job expectations was most pronounced among those with at most a high school education.
Official data released last week showed that non-farm payroll employment crept up by 22,000 jobs in August, which was far less than the expected increase of 75,000. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.3 percent in August from 4.2 in July. Initial jobless claims rose more-than-expected to a two-month high in the week ended August 30.
Elsewhere, a survey by payroll processor ADP revealed that private sector employment in the U.S. increased less than expected in August.
Households' income growth expectations were unchanged for a second month in a row at 2.9 percent. Spending growth expectations edged up 0.1 points to 5.0 percent.
Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated and the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the year ahead increased.
A larger share of households reported a worse financial situation and a smaller share of households reporting a better financial situation, while expectations on the financial situation in the year ahead were balanced, the survey showed.