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(26 Feb 2026, 14:23)

IMF expects USl government debt to reach 140% of GDP by 2030


While the risk of sovereign stress in the US is low, the upward path for the public debt-GDP ratio and increasing levels of short-term debt-GDP represent a growing stability risk to the U.S. and global economy, the IMF said in its initial Article IV statement for the US. The continuing rise in public debt remains a concern. However, it noted that in 2025, the federal government deficit decline. The fiscal changes put in place in 2025 will provide a modest near-term boost to activity in 2027, 2026-2027 but they will also raise the deficit. IMF expects is both federal and general government debt to go up, with the latter reaching 140 percent of GDP by 2030. Putting public debt on a decisively downward path will require determined actions in line with Secretary Bessent's views on lowering the federal deficit. The IMF offers some recommendations in this regard which involve considering a broad range of policies to raise tax revenues and address structural imbalances in programs such as Social Security and Medicare.
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