Finance Ministry stated in a latest monthly economic update today that high-frequency indicators (HFIs) signal continued momentum in Q4 FY25 for India. The domestic economic activity is resilient as per developments in various HFIs in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal. E-way bill generation grew by 18.9 per cent during the first two months of Q4 on a YoY basis, suggesting increased business and trade activity. Industrial and service sector activity is expanding steadily. The manufacturing and services PMI are in the expansionary zone (as indicated by values of the indices above 50). The index of industrial production has expanded by 5.0 per cent YoY in Jan 2025.
It noted that on the demand side, rural consumption is expected to stay resilient. Urban demand, however, continues to be mixed. The YoY growth in passenger vehicle sales has slowed to 4.4 per cent in April 2024 – February 2025, as compared to 10.1 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. The growth of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales volumes in urban areas recovered to 5 per cent in Q3 FY25.
Air passenger traffic increased by 8.7 per cent YoY in April 2024 – January 2025. In sum, the consolidated evidence on private final consumption expenditure flows from the National Accounts indicated a growth rate of 7.6 per cent in FY25. Overall, the economy seems on track to achieve a growth of 6.5 per cent, as estimated by the SAE of National Income for FY25. Green shoots of evidence seen in the bottoming of the net financial savings flows of households in FY24 (per cent of GDP) will bear close watching to divine the prospects of sustained growth in PFCE.