International Monetary Fund or IMF stated in its latest Article IV consultation with India that despite recent moderation, India’s economic growth has remained robust, with GDP growth of 6 percent y/y in the first half of 2024/25. Inflation has broadly declined within the tolerance band, though food price fluctuations have created some volatility. The financial sector has remained resilient, with non-performing loans at multi-year lows. Fiscal consolidation has continued, and the current account deficit has remained well contained, supported by strong growth in service exports.
Real GDP is expected to grow at 6.5 percent in 2024/25 and 2025/26, supported by robust growth in private consumption on the back of sustained macroeconomic and financial stability. Headline inflation is expected to converge to target as food price shocks wane. The current account is expected to widen somewhat but remain moderate at -1.3 percent of GDP in 2025/26. Looking ahead, India’s financial sector health, strengthened corporate balance sheets, and strong foundation in digital public infrastructure underscore India’s potential for sustained medium-term growth and continued social welfare gains.
IMF noted that risks to the economic outlook are tilted to the downside. Deepening geoeconomic fragmentation could affect external demand, while deepening regional conflicts could result in oil price volatility, weighing on India’s fiscal position. Domestically, the recovery in private consumption and investment may be weaker than expected if real incomes do not recover sufficiently. Weather shocks could adversely impact agricultural output, lifting food prices and weighing on the recovery in rural consumption.