India is likely to gain in sectors with high tariff gaps vis-a-vis competing nations like China, Canada and Mexico if the existing tariffs imposed by the US on India remain unchanged, NITI Aayog said in a latest update. It noted in its latest Trade Watch report that while India’s average tariff exposure remains moderate, this policy shift presents a unique strategic opportunity for Indian exporters. Analysis at the HS-2 and HS-4 levels shows India is well-positioned to gain market share in a significant portion of its exports to the US, covering over 61% of trade value in the top 30 HS-2 product categories and 52% in the top 100 HS-4 product categories.
These developments highlight the strategic importance of the US as India’s largest export destination and a key growth corridor. India must pursue complementary policy measures to capitalise these advantages, including targeted export promotion, deeper integration into global value chains, and a services-focused trade agreement with the US building institutional frameworks around digital trade, cross-border data flows, and mutual recognition agreements can expand India’s services footprint further. The evolving global trade environment demands agile policymaking on new trade alignments.