Year-on-year CPI inflation for May 2025 has softened to 2.82%, marking a notable reduction of 34 basis points compared to April 2025 (3.16%). This is the lowest year-on-year inflation recorded since February 2019 and provides a substantial boost to households and businesses, said Mr. Hemant Jain, President of PHDCCI. This softening of CPI inflation has been supported by a significant decline in food inflation. The year-on-year inflation rate, based on the All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), for the month of May 2025 compared to May 2024 is 0.99% (provisional), which is the lowest since October 2021, said Mr. Jain. This marked softening of headline and food inflation during May 2025 is mainly attributed to the decline in prices of pulses and products, vegetables, fruits, cereals and products, household goods, services, sugar and confectionery, and eggs, he added.
CPI and food inflation also significantly softened in both the rural and urban segments of the economy. In the rural segment, the headline inflation stood at 2.59% (provisional) in May 2025, compared to 2.92% in April 2025, whereas food inflation was observed at 0.95% (provisional) in May 2025, down from 1.85% in April 2025, said Mr. Jain. Similarly, in the urban segment, a significant decline was observed, with headline inflation falling from 3.36% in April 2025 to 3.07% (provisional) in May 2025, accompanied by a sharp decrease in food inflation from 1.64% in April 2025 to 0.96% (provisional) in May 2025, he added.
Looking ahead, we expect food inflation to cool further, attributed to the anticipated good monsoon. Moreover, crude prices are expected to stabilise within the range of US$60 to US$65 per barrel in the short to medium term, a development that will substantially boost private final consumption expenditure and, consequently, stimulate higher economic growth, said Mr. Jain.