Trading activity in the upcoming truncated week is expected to remain volatile. Global developments, particularly related to US-China bilateral trade negotiations, will be a key determinant of market direction. Any progress or escalation in these talks could impact export-oriented sectors.
Domestically, the environment remains broadly supportive with easing interest rates and a favorable inflation outlook. While India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable, external factors are exerting downward pressure on equities. Concerns over global inflation and the risk of recession, alongside ongoing trade tensions, are contributing to elevated volatility in global financial markets.
On the commodity front, the recent decline in international crude oil and metal prices may provide cost relief for Indian companies, particularly those in manufacturing and energy-dependent industries.
Q4 earnings season will take center stage as a critical driver of near-term direction. Market will also be shaped by the push and pull of institutional flows—foreign (FIIs) and domestic (DIIs)—alongside key global variables such as crude oil prices and the US dollar index.
From a technical perspective, the key resistance for the Nifty 50 lies at 23,000, where heavy open interest has built up. A clean break above could open the gates for a rally to 23,500. However, if the index slips below the support at 22,750, we could see sentiment sour and bears take the wheel.
In terms of earnings action, investors will be keeping tabs on several key players. On Tuesday, April 15, results will roll in from ICICI Lombard General Insurance, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, and Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency. Wipro will unveil its Q4 performance on Wednesday, April 16. And Thursday, April 17, will be a heavy-hitter earnings day with Infosys, Tata Elxsi, HDFC AMC, and HDFC Life all set to report.
The Indian stock market will remain closed on Monday, April 14, in observance of Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti, and again on Friday, April 18, for Good Friday.
Domestic Cues:
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation data for March will release on Tuesday, 15 April 2025. India’s wholesale prices climbed by 2.38% yoy in February 2025, accelerating from a 2.31% rise in January.
India's consumer price inflation (CPI) for March will release on Tuesday, 15 April 2025. India’s annual inflation rate dropped to 3.62% in February 2025, down from a revised 4.26% in the previous month.
India's balance of trade for March will release on Tuesday, 15 April 2025. India recorded a trade deficit of $14.05 billion in February of 2025, narrowing from the $18.7 billion deficit of the corresponding period of the previous year to mark the lowest gap since August 2021 amid a sharp decline in imports.
Global Cues:
China's Q1 GDP data will release on Wednesday, 16 April 2025. The Chinese economy expanded by 5.4% yoy in Q4 2024, accelerating from 4.6% in Q3.
China's industrial production for March will release on Wednesday, 16 April 2025. China's industrial production expanded by 5.9% yoy in January-February 2025 combined, faster than market forecasts of a 5.3% rise, but easing from 6.2% growth in December 2024.
China's retail sales data for March will release on Wednesday, 16 April 2025. China's retail sales rose by 4.0% yoy in the first two months of 2025, quickening from a 3.7% growth in December.
United States retail sales data for March will release on Wednesday, 16 April 2025. Retail sales in the US increased 0.2% mom in February 2025, rebounding from a downwardly revised 1.2% fall in January.
Japan's balance of trade for March will release on Thursday, 17 April 2025. Japan’s trade balance shifted to a surplus of JPY 584.5 billion in February 2025 from a deficit of JPY 415.43 billion in the same month a year earlier.
United States Building Permits data for March will release on Thursday, 17 April 2025. Building permits in the United States dropped by 1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.459 million in February 2025, the lowest level since last October and compared with a preliminary estimate of 1.456 million.
United States Housing Starts data for March will release on Thursday, 17 April 2025. Housing starts in the US unexpectedly soared 11.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.501 million in February 2025, way above a downwardly revised 1.35 million in January.
Japan's inflation data for March will release on Friday, 18 April 2025. The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 3.7% in February 2025 from a 2-year high of 4.0% in the prior month.