Dalal Street heads into the new week walking a tightrope, with investor sentiment remaining fragile amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Traders are increasingly cautious, reluctant to carry positions as uncertainty continues to cloud near-term visibility.
The undertone is clear: this is not yet a full-fledged recovery, but a market caught between hope and hesitation.
At the macro level, multiple headwinds persist. Continued foreign institutional investor (FII) selling remains a key drag on liquidity, while crude oil prices, though off recent highs, are still elevated enough to keep inflation concerns alive. Rising US bond yields and a sharply weakening rupee, which recently hit a record low of 93 against the dollar, are adding to the pressure.
Globally, developments in the Iran-US-Israel conflict and the movement of crude oil prices will remain the dominant drivers of market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty is at a critical juncture. Immediate support is placed in the 22,850-22,800 zone, and a sustained breach below this could extend losses towards 22,600 and 22,400 in the near term. On the upside, the 23,300-23,350 band is expected to act as a strong resistance unless supported by meaningful triggers.
In essence, markets appear to be entering a phase where volatility is the only constant, with sharp swings and quick reversals likely. The near-term trend will hinge on how global risks evolve, making this a time for measured positioning rather than aggressive bets.
Domestic Cues:
On 24 March 2026, India will release HSBC flash PMI data for March, including Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI, offering an early snapshot of business activity.
On 28 March 2026, India will release industrial production (YoY) and manufacturing production (YoY) data for February, offering a gauge of economic and industrial activity.
Global Cues:
On 23 March 2026, the United States will release the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February, offering a broad gauge of economic activity and growth momentum.
On 24 March 2026, Japan will be in focus with key inflation data, including Inflation Rate YoY and Core Inflation Rate YoY for February, along with flash PMI readings for manufacturing and services for March. Later in the day, the United States will release ADP Employment Change data, followed by S&P Global flash PMI readings for manufacturing, services and composite activity, providing early signals on business conditions.
On 25 March 2026, attention will shift to US energy and macro data, including API crude oil stock change early in the day and EIA crude oil and gasoline inventories later. Japan will also release minutes of its latest Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. Additionally, the US will report MBA 30-year mortgage rates, current account balance for Q4, and import and export price data for February.
On 26 March 2026, the United States will publish initial jobless claims for the week, a key indicator of labour market health.
On 27 March 2026, the US will release Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for March, along with advance estimates of retail and wholesale inventories for February, providing insight into consumption trends and business stock levels.