Indian equity markets appear poised to begin the coming week on a cautiously optimistic note. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has lifted a major geopolitical overhang, nudging global investors back into risk-on mode. Adding to the cheer, a successful NATO summit and renewed European commitment to defense spending have reassured markets wary of growing US isolationism.
The spotlight has now shifted squarely to the US Federal Reserve and the looming July 9 trade tariff deadline. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent testimony to the US Senate did not significantly impact market expectations, investor attention remains focused on upcoming US data, and any clarity on reciprocal US tariffs. Both factors could influence global sentiment.
Closer to home, foreign institutional investors have resumed their buying spree, which has helped bolster Indian benchmarks. Market breadth has been encouraging, with strong participation across mid and smallcaps, reinforcing a "buy on dips" strategy.
On the technical front, Nifty closed just above the 25,600 mark on Friday, 27 June 2025. A sustained close above the 25,750-25,800 zone will be crucial to reignite upward momentum. A breakout above this level could open up 26,000, and potentially pave the way for a retest of the record high at 26,277. On the flip side, the 25,300-25,400 band will act as strong support, and any breach of this could trigger short-term profit booking.
Domestic Cues:
India's Industrial Production (YoY) data for May will be released on Monday, 30 June 2025. India's industrial production expanded by 2.7% from the previous year in April of 2025, slowing from the upwardly revised 3.9% jump in the previous month.
India's Current Account data for Q1 will be released on Monday, 30 June 2025. India posted a current account deficit of $11.5 billion in the three months to December of 2024, up from a revised $10.4 billion in the same period last year.
India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final for June will be released on Tuesday, 1 July 2025. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.4 in June 2025, up from 57.6 in May, according to preliminary estimates.
India's HSBC Composite PMI Final for June will be published on Thursday, 3 July 2025. The HSBC India Composite PMI rose to 61.0 in June 2025 from a final 59.3 in the previous month, and reaching its highest level since April 2024, flash data showed.
India's HSBC Services PMI Final for June will also be released on Thursday, 3 July 2025. The HSBC India Services PMI increased to 60.7 in June 2025 from 58.8 in the previous month, according to preliminary estimates.
Global Cues:
China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI for June will be released on Monday, 30 June 2025. China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May 2025 from April’s 16-month low of 49.0, while marking the second straight month of contraction in factory activity.
Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturers Index for Q2 will be released on Tuesday, 1 July 2025. The Bank of Japan's Tankan index of sentiment among large manufacturers fell to 12 in the first quarter of 2025, down from 14 in the previous quarter, marking its lowest level in a year as concerns over US tariffs dampened the mood.
China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June will be published on Tuesday, 1 July 2025. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to 48.3 in May 2025, down from April’s 50.4 and marking the first contraction in the sector in eight months.
Japan’s Consumer Confidence data for June will be released on Tuesday, 1 July 2025. Japan’s consumer confidence index rose to 32.8 in May 2025, rebounding from April’s more than two-year low of 31.2.
The United States ISM Manufacturing PMI for June will be released on Tuesday, 1 July 2025. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 48.5 in May 2025 from 48.7 in April, below market expectations of 49.5.
The United States JOLTs Job Openings data for May will also be released on Tuesday, 1 July 2025. Job openings in the United States rose by 191,000 to 7.391 million in April 2025.
The United States Non-Farm Payrolls data for June will be published on Thursday, 3 July 2025. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 139K in May 2025, a small slowdown from April’s downwardly revised 147K, but slightly above forecasts of 130K.
The United States Unemployment Rate for June will also be released on Thursday, 3 July 2025. The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in May 2025 for a second straight month, matching market expectations.
The United States ISM Services PMI for June will be announced on Thursday, 3 July 2025. The ISM Services PMI declined to 49.9 in May 2025 from 51.6 in April.