In the week ended on Friday, 16 May 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex zoomed 2,876.12 points or 3.62% to settle at 82,330.59. The Nifty 50 index soared 1,011.8 points or 4.21% to settle at 25,019.80. The BSE Mid-Cap index surged 6.87% to close at 45,005.84. The BSE Small-Cap index climbed 9.20% to end at 51,045.74.

Weekly Index Movement:

The key equity indices bounced back with strong gains on Monday, breaking a two-day losing streak. Investor sentiment was lifted as geopolitical tensions eased following a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan, bringing an end to days of missile and drone attacks. The S&P BSE Sensex, soared 2,975.43 points or 3.74% to 82,429.90. The Nifty 50 index galloped 916.70 points or 3.82% to 24,924.70.

The domestic equity benchmarks took a breather on Tuesday, halting their previous session’s rally. The S&P BSE Sensex tanked 1,281.68 points or 1.55% to 81,148.22. The Nifty 50 index slumped 346.35 points or 1.39% to 24,578.35.

Equity benchmarks posted moderate gains on Wednesday, buoyed by softer-than-expected WPI and retail inflation data in India. Adding to the cheer, the timely arrival of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea lifted domestic sentiment. Global markets mirrored the optimism, as U.S. consumer inflation for April came in below expectations, sparking hopes of a more dovish Fed stance. The S&P BSE Sensex advanced 182.34 points or 0.22% to 81,330.56. The Nifty 50 index added 88.55 points or 0.36% to 24,666.90.

Domestic equity benchmarks closed with strong gains on Thursday, rising for the second consecutive session. The S&P BSE Sensex soared 1,200.18 points or 1.48% to 82,530.74. The Nifty 50 index surged 395.20 points or 1.60% to 25,062.10. In the past two trading sessions, Sensex and Nifty rallied 1.70% and 1.97%, respectively.

The headline equity indices ended with small losses on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak, as investors booked profits following a sharp rally in the previous session. Caution prevailed ahead of key Q4 earnings announcements. The S&P BSE Sensex declined 200.15 points or 0.24% to 82,330.59. The Nifty 50 index fell 42.30 points or 0.17% to 25,019.80.

IMD Monsoon Forecast:

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is expected to hit Kerala on May 27, earlier than the usual June 1 onset. If it does, this would mark the earliest monsoon arrival since 2009. Kerala’s onset signals the official start of the monsoon season across India, which typically covers the country by July 8 and retreats between September 17 and October 15.

Monsoon Onset:

The southwest monsoon is progressing as anticipated, having reached the Andaman Sea and parts of the southern Bay of Bengal. This marks the initial entry point for the southwest monsoon, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Thiruvananthapuram. The IMD had forecast the onset of the monsoon for May 13, and it arrived on schedule. Over the next four to five days, it is expected to advance northward, covering additional areas of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and extending into the Andaman Islands and most parts of the Andaman Sea.

India and Pakistan Ceasefire:

Tensions between India and Pakistan took a much-needed breather over the weekend as both nations agreed to a ceasefire following days of escalating the worst the region has seen in nearly three decades. The truce came after a dramatic round of late-night diplomacy led by the United States.

"After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE," President Donald Trump declared on Saturday.

The ceasefire, while fragile, appeared to be holding steady over the last 24 hours. However, both sides traded accusations of minor violations.

Economy:

India's forex reserves dropped $2.065 billion to $686.064 billion for the week ended May 2, the RBI said on Friday.

For the week ended May 2, foreign currency assets, a major component of the reserves, increased $514 million to $581.177 billion, the data released on Friday showed.

Gold reserves decreased $2.545 million to $81.82 billion during the week, the RBI said.

The special drawing rights were down $30 million to $18.558 billion, the apex bank said.

India's reserve position with the IMF was also down $3 million at $4.509 billion in the reporting week, the apex bank data showed.

India's retail inflation in April fell to 3.16% from 3.34% in March, showed official data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Tuesday. Effectively, headline inflation declined 18 basis points in April 2025 compared to March 2025. According to the government, it is the lowest year-on-year inflation since July 2019. The decline in headline inflation in April 2025 is mainly attributed to decline in inflation of vegetables, pulses & products, fruits, meat and fish, personal care and effects and cereals and products.

India’s wholesale inflation (WPI) eased further to 0.85% in April on an annual basis as against a four-month low of 2.05% in March, the government data showed on Wednesday. Positive rate of inflation in April, 2025 is primarily due to increase in prices of manufacture of food products, other manufacturing, chemicals and chemical products, manufacture of other transport equipment, manufacture of machinery and equipment, etc.

India's overall exports, including merchandise and services, edged up to USD 73.80 billion in April 2025, marking a 12.7 per cent increase from USD 65.48 billion in the same month last year. The overall imports climbed to USD 82.45 billion in April 2025, a 15.7 per cent jump from USD 71.25 billion in April 2024. Trade deficit widened to USD 8.65 billion in the current year, marking 50 per cent increase from USD 5.77 billion a year earlier.

Stocks in Spotlight:

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories jumped 6.40%. The company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,594 crore for the quarter ended March 2025 (Q4FY25), marking a 22% year-on-year increase from Rs 1,307 crore in the same period last year. Revenue from operations rose 20% year-on-year to Rs 8,506 crore, compared to Rs 7,083 crore in Q4FY24.

Hero Motocorp soared 12.59%. The company’s standalone net profit increased 6.39% to Rs 1,080.94 crore on a 4.41% jump in revenue from operations to Rs 9,938.65 crore in Q4 FY25 over Q4 FY24.

Tata Steel surged 10.29%. The company reported a 116.54% surge in consolidated net profit to Rs 1,200.88 crore in Q4 FY25 compared with Rs 554.56 crore posted in Q4 FY24. However, revenue from operations fell 4.20% YoY to Rs 56,218.11 crore in the quarter ended 31 March 2025.

Bharti Airtel declined 1.83%. The telecom major's consolidated net profit soared 432.04% to Rs 11,021.8 crore in Q4 FY25 as against Rs 2,071.6 crore reported in Q4 FY24. Revenue from operations increased 27.33% YoY to Rs 47,876.2 crore in Q4 FY25, driven by strong underlying momentum in India, a rebound in reported currency revenue growth in Africa and the full quarter impact of Indus Towers consolidation. Average revenue per user (ARPU) for the quarter stood at Rs 245, up 17.78% over Rs 209 in Q4 FY24.

Tata Motors rallied 3.13%. The company’s consolidated net profit from continuing operations declined 51.74% to Rs 8,470 crore in Q4 FY25 as compared with Rs 17,552 crore in Q4 FY24. Revenue from operations increased 0.39% YoY to Rs 1,19,503 crore in Q4 FY25.

Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) zommed 15.50%. The company's consolidated net profit jumped 3.02% to Rs 504.45 crore in Q4 FY25 as against Rs 489.62 crore posted in Q4 FY24. Revenue from operations grew by 8.87% year on year (YoY) to Rs 8,993.37 crore in the quarter ended 31 March 2025.

Godrej Industries jumped 5.48%. The company reported consolidated net profit of Rs 183.08 crore in Q4 FY25, compared with net loss of Rs 311.81 crore in Q4 FY24. Revenue from operations jumped 26.5% to Rs 5,779.69 crore in Q4 FY25, compared with Rs 4,567.27 crore in Q4 FY24.

Bajaj Electricals climbed 26.47%. The company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 59.05 crore in Q4 FY25, which is two times the PAT of Rs 29.31 crore recorded in Q4 FY24. Total revenue from operations increased by 6.51% year on year (YoY) to Rs 1,265.47 crore during the period under review.

Global Markets:

The U.K. unemployment rate hit 4.5% in the January to March period, hitting the highest rate since August 2021. Vacancies dropped by 42,000 across February to April, falling for the 34th consecutive quarter.

The U.K. economy grew 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, according to a preliminary estimate from the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% in the first quarter, a significant improvement from the 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter and zero growth in the third quarter.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the first-quarter growth was largely driven by a 0.7% increase in the services sector. Additionally, production grew by 1.1%, while the construction sector showed no growth during this period.

Germany’s annual harmonized inflation rate stood at 2.2% in April, data from the country’s Federal Statistical Office showed on Wednesday.

Unemployment in South Korea dropped to 2.9% in April from the previous month, marking its fourth straight month of decline and its lowest point since November 2024. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 2.7% in April, down from 2.9% in March.

Data from the country’s national statistics site revealed that the economically active population grew to 29.74 million people, up 0.6% year on year.

South Korea’s labor force participation rate stood at 65.1% in April, up 0.1 percentage points year on year.

The U.S. headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year in April, with a monthly increase of 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose 0.2% month-on-month, indicating contained inflationary pressures.