The key equity benchmarks ended with significant losses during the week, weighted down by uncertainty over the India –US trade deal and underwhelming monthly sales data. Market sentiment remained cautious, with investors looking ahead to the upcoming earnings season and further developments on the trade front. Investors largely overlooked domestic economic data and remained focused on geopolitical factors. Broader market outperformed the headline indices.
In the week ended on Friday, 04 July 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 626.01 points or 0.74% to settle at 83,432.89. The Nifty 50 index fell 176.80 points or 0.69% to settle at 25,461. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.59% to close at 46,814.34. The BSE Small-Cap index added 1.07% to end at 54,830.34.
Weekly Index Movement:
The headline equity benchmarks ended with modest losses on Monday, snapping a four-day winning streak. The S&P BSE Sensex tanked 452.44 points or 0.54% to 83,606.46. The Nifty 50 index fell 120.75 points or 0.47% to 25,517.05.
The domestic benchmark indices closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 90.83 points or 0.11% to 83,697.29. The Nifty 50 index added 24.75 points or 0.10% to 25,541.80.
Equity benchmarks closed with moderate losses on Wednesday as uncertainty around the India-US trade negotiations kept investor sentiment subdued. The S&P BSE Sensex declined by 287.60 points or 0.34% to close at 83,409.69, while the Nifty 50 shed 88.40 points or 0.35% to end at 25,453.40.
The headline equity indices closed with modest losses on Thursday, extending their losing streak for the second straight session. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 170.22 points or 0.20% to 83,239.47. The Nifty 50 index lost 48.10 points or 0.19% to 25,405.30. In two consecutive sessions, the Sensex and Nifty were down by 0.54% and 0.53%, respectively.
The domestic equity benchmarks ended with moderate gains on Friday. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex advanced 193.42 points or 0.23% to 83,432.89. The Nifty 50 index gained 55.70 points or 0.22% to 25,461.
Economy:
India’s industrial output growth fell to a nine-month low of 1.2% in May 2025, dragged down by weak performance in the manufacturing, mining, and electricity sectors, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Monday showed. The factory output, measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), had grown 6.3% in May 2024, while the April 2025 estimate has been revised to 2.6%, slightly down from the earlier 2.7%. According to the data, manufacturing – which forms over three-fourths of the IIP – grew 2.6% in May, down from 5.1% a year ago. Mining output shrank 0.1%, reversing a 6.6% expansion in May last year. Electricity generation saw a sharp contraction of 5.8% compared to a robust 13.7% growth a year ago.
The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index – based on a single question asking how the level of business activity compares with the situation the month before – rose from 58.8 in May to a ten-month high of 60.4 in June.
The HSBC India Composite PMI Output Index rose from 59.3 in May to 61.0, indicating the fastest rate of expansion in 14 months.
The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a single-figure indicator of sector performance – rose to a 14-month high of 58.4 in June, up from 57.6 in May. The headline figure was above its long-run average of 54.1 and pointed to a substantial improvement in the health of the sector.
India–US trade deal update:
India and the US are actively engaged in trade negotiations as the July 9 deadline looms. If a deal is not reached by then, Indian exports to the US could face a total tariff of 36% (10% baseline tariffs plus 26% reciprocal tariffs). Trump has indicated that the deadline may not be extended.
SEBI Action on Jane Street:
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has barred U.S.-based trading firm Jane Street Group from accessing the Indian securities market. According to an order posted on SEBI’s website, the firm and its related entities are prohibited from buying, selling, or otherwise dealing in securities, directly or indirectly.
SEBI has also issued an interim order to impound over Rs 4,843.57 crore in alleged illegal gains. The regulator stated that Jane Street allegedly used strategies to artificially influence the Nifty 50 index to benefit from larger positions in index options. Banks have been directed not to allow any debits from accounts held individually or jointly by the firm’s entities without SEBI’s prior approval.
Monthly Auto Sales:
Bajaj Auto rose 0.62%. The company has reported total auto sales of 3,60,806 units for June 2025, which is higher by 1% as compared with the figure of 3,58,477 units recorded in June 2024.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) shed 0.63%. The auto major said that its overall auto sales grew by 13.79% to 78,969 vehicles sold in June 2025 as against 69,397 vehicles sold in June 2024. Further, the company's Farm Equipment Sector (FES) announced that its total tractor sales (domestic + exports) during June 2025 were at 53,392 units, up 12.83% from 47,319 units in May 2024.
Eicher Motors fell 0.61%. The company's unlisted subsidiary, VE Commercial Vehicles (VECV), reported a 0.82% year-on-year marginal declined in commercial vehicle (CV) sales to 7,363 units in June 2025. Meanwhile, the company’s monthly motorcycle sales in June 2025 stood at 89,540 units, which is higher by 22% compared with 73,141 units in the same month a year ago.
TVS Motor Company declined 1.47%. The firm has registered sales of 402,001 units in June 2025, which is higher by 20% as compared with the 333,646 units sold in June 2024.
Ashok Leyland shed 0.44%. The company reported a 3% rise in total commercial vehicle sales to 15,333 units in June 2025 from 14,940 units sold in June 2024.
Steel Strips Wheels (SSWL) tumbled 7.98%. The company reported a net turnover of Rs 350.67 crore for June 2025, down 2.08% YoY growth compared to Rs 358.11 crore posted in June 2024.
VST Tillers Tractors jumped 7.38%. The company’s total sales surged 92.69% to 7,149 units in June 2025 from 3,710 units sold in June 2024.
Maruti Suzuki India added 1.95%. The company’s total sales declined 6.27% to 167,993 units in June 2025 as against 179,228 units sold in June 2024.
Stocks in Spotlight:
Karnataka Bank declined 0.89%. The bank’s board has accepted the resignation of managing director (MD) & chief executive officer (CEO), Srikrishnan Hari Hara Sarma, effective from 15 July 2025. Additionally, the company’s board has approved the appointment of Raghavendra Srinivas Bhat as the chief operating officer (COO), effective from 2 July 2025.
Gabriel India surged 35.4%. The company's board approved a comprehensive restructuring scheme aimed at transforming the company into a diversified mobility solutions provider. The plan involves the amalgamation of Anchemco India Private Limited into Asia Investments Private (AIPL), followed by the demerger of AIPL's automotive business into Gabriel India. As part of the transaction, Gabriel India will issue 1,158 equity shares of Rs 1 each for every 1,000 equity shares of Rs 10 each held in AIPL. The transaction qualifies as a related party arrangement and is being executed on an arm’s length basis. The proposed composite scheme of arrangement is expected to take 10 to 12 months for completion, assuming timely approvals.
Hero MotoCorp rose 2.49%. The company reported dispatching 553,963 units of motorcycles and scooters in June 2025, marking a 10.03% increase compared to 503,448 units dispatched in June 2024.
Avenue Supermarts (DMart) slipped 2.54%. The company announced that the total number of DMart stores as of 30 June 2025 stood at 424. It has reported standalone revenue of Rs 15,932.12 crore in the quarter ended 30 June 2025, recording a growth of 16.19% from Rs 13,711.87 crore posted in the same period a year ago.
Trent slumped 12.39%. The company's Q1 FY26 business update came in below market expectations, prompting concerns over its growth momentum.
HDFC Bank declined 0.57%. The bank said that its average deposits increased 16.4% to Rs 26,58,000 crore as on 30th June 2025 compared with Rs 22,83,100 crore as on 30th June 2024.
Global Markets:
In China, manufacturing activity contracted for the third straight month in June. The official manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.7 from May's 49.5, still below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI, which captures activity in services and construction, ticked up to 50.5 from 50.3. With the economy continuing to lose steam, hoped for fresh stimulus measures from Beijing.
In mainland China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in June, a significant improvement from May’s reading of 48.3. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion. This data follows the official government PMI, which showed a third consecutive monthly contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity for June.
Annual inflation in the Eurozone edged up to 2% in June, according to preliminary data from Eurostat. This marks a slight increase from May, when inflation stood at 1.9%.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, above expectations and revised upward from 144,000 in May. The unemployment rate declined slightly to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month, indicating limited wage-driven inflation. Initial jobless claims also fell to a six-week low.
U.S announced trade deal with Vietnam. According to a post on Truth Social, the U.S. will slap a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports, while Vietnam will impose "ZERO Tariff" on U.S. goods. The announcement came as Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve nears its deadline.
U.S. private payrolls disappointed again. June saw a decline of 33,000 jobs, against expectations of a 99,000 gain. May’s figures were also revised down to 29,000, marking the weakest two-month stretch since early 2023. The soft labor data reflects employer caution and worker hesitation amid tariff-related economic jitters.