Indian equities enter the next trading week on a cautiously optimistic note. India’s Finance Minister affirmed resilient growth and pledged elevated capital spending to offset external headwinds.
Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is delaying key macro data—creating a data vacuum that could complicate rate expectations ahead of the Fed’s October meeting.
Given this backdrop, the Indian markets could see some pockets of strength. The volatility, however, could remain elevated in the near term.
On the domestic front, the HSBC Services PMI Final for September 2025 would be released on Monday (06 October 2025). The HSBC India Services PMI fell to 61.6 in September 2025, down from 62.9 in August, according to preliminary estimates. Despite the decline, the reading remained close to August’s peak—the strongest expansion in the services sector since June 2010—as foreign sales grew at the slowest pace since March 2025.
The HSBC Composite PMI Final figure would be made public on the same day. The HSBC India Services PMI fell to 61.6 in September 2025, down from 62.9 in August, according to preliminary estimates. Despite the decline, the reading remained close to August’s peak, the strongest expansion in the services sector since June 2010.
The bank loan growth data for the week ended on 26 September 2025 would be unveiled on Friday (10 October 2025). The value of loans in India increased 10.30 percent in September of 2025 over the same month in the previous year.
On the same day, the Foreign Exchange Reserves figures for the week ended on 03 October 2025 would be made public. Foreign Exchange Reserves in India decreased to 702570 USD Million in September 19 from 702970 USD Million in the previous week.
In China, the Foreign Exchange Reserves data for the month of September 2025 would be announced on Thursday (09 October 2025). China’s foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 29.9 billion, or 0.91%, to USD 3.322 trillion in August 2025, up from USD 3.292 trillion in July, marking the highest level since December 2015. The increase came as the dollar weakened against other major currencies.
In the United States, the Balance of Trade figures for August 2025 would be made public on Tuesday (07 October 2025). The US trade gap widened sharply to $78.3 billion in July 2025, the highest in four months, compared to a revised $59.1 billion gap in June. Exports rose a meagre 0.3% to $280.5 billion while Imports jumped 5.9% to 358.8 billion.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) would release the Crude Oil Stock data for the week ended on 03 October 2025 on Wednesday (08 October 2025). US crude oil inventories dropped by 3.674 million barrels in the week ending 26 September 2025, following a 3.821 million-barrel decline the previous week.
On Thursday (09 October 2025), the FOMC Minutes would be made public. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range. It is the first reduction in borrowing costs since December.
The preliminary values for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October 2025 would be announced on Friday (10 October 2025). The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 55.1 in September 2025 from a preliminary of 55.1 and compared with 58.2 in August. This marked the second consecutive monthly decrease, pushing sentiment to its lowest level since May.