As the new week kicks off, markets are entering with cautious optimism. While Friday's rebound brought some cheer, investors remain alert to developments in West Asia. Any flare-up in tensions could push crude oil prices higher, reviving volatility and unsettling sentiment.
Technically, the Nifty 50 is approaching a key inflection point. A decisive close above 25,200 would mark a breakout from the five-week consolidation zone, potentially paving the way toward the 25,600-25,800 range. Until then, the index is expected to move in a narrow band, with traders watching global cues for direction.
With no major domestic triggers on the radar, developments in the Middle East, US economic data, and crude oil prices, will likely dictate the mood. The advice remains to stay selectively bullish, align with sectoral trends, and prioritize stock-specific opportunities over aggressive index bets.
Domestic Cues:
India's HSBC Composite PMI Flash for June will release on Monday, 23 June 2025. The HSBC India Composite PMI stood at 59.3 in May 2025, down from the flash estimate of 61.2 but slightly above April’s 59.7.
India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash for June will release on Monday, 23 June 2025. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 57.6 in May 2025 from 58.2 in April, below the preliminary estimate of 58.3.
India's HSBC Services PMI Flash for June will release on Monday, 23 June 2025. The HSBC India Services PMI was revised lower to 58.8 in May 2025 from 61.2 in the preliminary estimates.
Global Cues:
US existing home sales data for May will release on Monday, 23 June 2025. Existing home sales in the US declined 0.5% mom to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.00 million in April 2025, the lowest in seven months, compared to 4.020 million in March.
Fed Chair Powell’s testimony will take place on Tuesday, 24 June 2025. The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting in June 2025, in line with expectations, as policymakers take a cautious stance to fully evaluate the economic impact of President Trump’s policies, particularly those related to tariffs, immigration, and taxation.
US durable goods orders data for May will release on Thursday, 26 June 2025. New orders for manufactured goods in the US plunged by 6.3% from the previous month to $296.3 billion in April of 2025, the sharpest drop since January of 2024, but slightly softer than market expectations of a 7.8% decline.
US GDP growth rate data for Q1 (final) will release on Thursday, 26 June 2025. The US economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1 2025, a slight improvement from the initial estimate of a 0.3% decline, but still marked the first quarterly GDP contraction in three years.
US Core PCE Price Index data for May will release on Friday, 27 June 2025. The core PCE price index in the US, which excludes volatile and energy prices and is Federal Reserve's chosen gauge of underlying inflation in the US economy, went up 0.1% from the previous month in April of 2025.
US personal income data for May will release on Friday, 27 June 2025. US personal income rose by 0.8% month-over-month to $25.858 trillion in April 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in March.
US personal spending data for May will release on Friday, 27 June 2025. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in the United States rose by 0.2% month-over-month in April 2025, slowing from a 0.7% increase in March, as the surge in spending ahead of import tariff hikes began to ease.