Investor sentiment could continue to remain cautious as macro uncertainty stemming from the ongoing US-Iran war continues to keep oil prices on a boil. Surging oil prices have the potential to disrupt the fiscal maths of a number of emerging market economies, including India.
Given this backdrop, India’s fiscal deficit for FY26 was reported at nearly 95% of the revised annual target by February, reflecting controlled government spending and providing comfort on macro stability.
In the US, softer-than-expected data reinforced expectations of policy easing, with core PCE inflation easing to 2.6% year-on-year in February, supporting risk appetite across global equities.
In China, official data showed manufacturing activity remaining in expansion territory, with PMI holding above the 50 mark, indicating steady industrial momentum.
With oil price shocks continuing to weigh on investor sentiment, investors would remain attentive to incoming inflation data, central-bank commentary and cross-asset volatility for near-term direction.
In India, the final reading for the HSBC Services PMI would be made on Monday (06 April 2026). The HSBC India Services PMI fell to 57.2 in March 2026 from 58.1 in February, signaling a slower yet still solid expansion in the services sector. The latest reading marked the weakest growth since January 2025, weighed by softer domestic demand despite resilient external conditions.
Monday would also see the release of the final value for the HSBC Composite PMI for March 2026. The HSBC India Composite PMI fell to 56.5 in March 2026 from 58.9 in February, flash estimates showed. This was the weakest expansion in Indian private sector activity since October 2022, as growth moderated across both manufacturing and services amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.
On Wednesday (08 April 2026), the Reserve Bank of India would announce its latest monetary policy decision. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its key repo rate at 5.25% during its February 2026 meeting, the first monetary policy decision of the year, after cutting it by 25 basis points at the December meeting, amid confidence in a softer inflation outlook and improving growth prospects.
Lastly on Friday (10 April 2026), the Foreign Exchange Reserves position for the period ended on 03 April 2026 would be ande unveiled. Foreign Exchange Reserves in India decreased to $698,350 million in March 20 from $709,760 million in the previous week.
In China, the Balance of Trade data for March 2026 would be announced on Tuesday (14 April 2026). China’s trade surplus stood at USD 213.62 billion in the first two months of 2026, following a record surplus of USD 1.189 trillion in 2025. Exports surged 21.8% YoY to $656.58 billion while imports climbed 19.8% to $442.96 billion.
On Thursday (16 April 2026), the GDP Growth Rate figure for the first quarter would be announced. China’s economy expanded 4.5% YoY in Q4 2025, slowing from 4.8% in Q3 and marking the weakest rise in three years.
Thursday would also see the release of the Industrial Production data for the month of March 2026. China’s industrial production rose 6.3% yoy in the combined January–February period of 2026, accelerating from a 5.2% growth in December and exceeding market expectations of 5.1%.
On the same day, the Retail Sales data for the month of March would also be unveiled. China's retail sales rose 2.8% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026, accelerating from a 0.9% gain in December.
In the United States, the ISM Services PMI for March 2026 would be released on Monday (06 April 2026). The ISM Services PMI for the US climbed to 56.1 in February 2026 from 53.8 in January, marking the fastest expansion in the sector since August 2022.
On Tuesday (07 April 2026), the Durable Goods Orders for the month of February would be made public. New orders for US-manufactured durable goods were flat month-over-month in January 2026, following a downwardly revised 0.9% decrease in December.
On Wednesday (08 April 2026), the FOMC Minutes from the US Fed’s latest meeting would be released. The US Fed left the federal funds rate steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range for a 2nd consecutive meeting in March 2026. Policymakers noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, job gains have remained low while inflation remains somewhat elevated. The implications
On Thursday (09 April 2026), the quarterly GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter would be announced. The US economy expanded an annualized 0.7% in Q4 2025, the weakest performance since a contraction in the first quarter of 2025 and well below 1.4% in the advance estimate.
On Friday (10 April 2026), the Inflation Rate for the month of March would be released. The annual inflation rate in the US held steady at 2.4% in February 2026, unchanged from January, in line with expectations and remaining at its lowest level since May 2025.
Friday would also see the release of preliminary reading for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April 2026. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 53.3 in March 2026, down from the preliminary estimate of 55.5. This places sentiment near record lows observed at the end of 2025, with declines spanning all age groups and political affiliations.