Indian equities enter the week of Oct 18–24, 2025 with a cautiously optimistic undertone, riding on robust domestic flows and easing external headwinds. The Nifty climbed to a one-year high on October 17, buoyed by strong buying in Reliance and easing yields in the U.S. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India reportedly intervened in forex markets, selling up to $5 billion to support the rupee amid external pressures.
On the global front, the IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast, citing more benign tariff impacts and resilient private sector momentum. That said, China’s export trajectory is moderating, and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions loom as downside risks.
Volatility may rise ahead of U.S. Fed signals and major corporate earnings that are slated for release in the coming weeks.
In India, the Infrastructure Output figures for the September 2025 period would be made public on Tuesday (21 October 2025). The infrastructure output in India expanded by 6.3% from the previous year in August of 2025, accelerating from the upwardly revised 3.2% increase in the previous month, to mark the sharpest pace of growth in one year.
On Friday (24 October 2025), the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI and the Composite PMI values for October 2025 would be made announced.
The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 57.7 in September 2025 from a preliminary estimate of 58.5, and compared to August’s 17-and-a-half-year high of 59.3. Despite the fall, the figure remained well above the long-term average, signaling continued strength in the sector.
The HSBC India Services PMI was revised lower to 60.9 in September 2025, down from a preliminary estimate of 61.6 and a final reading of 62.9 in August. The slowdown was driven by a softer expansion in new business and overall activity.
The HSBC India Composite PMI slipped to 61.0 in September 2025, below the flash estimate of 61.9 and August’s 63.2, marking the lowest level since June. Although still comfortably above its long-run average, the latest data pointed to a broad-based slowdown in output growth across both manufacturing and services.
In China, the GDP Growth Rate figure for the third quarter would be announced on Monday (20 October 2025). China’s economy expanded 5.2% yoy in Q2 2025, easing from 5.4% in the prior two quarters and marking the weakest pace since Q3 2024.
The Industrial Production data for the September 2025 period would also be released on the same day. China's industrial production grew by 5.2% year-on-year in August 2025, easing from July’s 5.7% and falling short of expectations of 5.8%.
Monday would also see the release of the Retail Sales data for the month of September. China’s retail sales grew 3.4% year-on-year in August 2025, easing from 3.7% in the previous month. It was the slowest pace since November 2024 and the third consecutive month of deceleration.
On Friday (24 October 2025), the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) figure for January – September 2025 period would be released. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China dropped 12.7% year-on-year to CNY 506.58 billion in the first eight months of 2025, amid global economic uncertainty.
In the United States, the details pertaining to the changes in the Crude Oil Stock of the American Petroleum Institute (API) for the week ending on 17 October 2025 would be made public on Wednesday (22 October 2025). US crude oil inventories rose by 3.524 million barrels in the week ending October 10, 2025, following a 2.78 million-barrel build the previous week.
On Thursday (23 October 2025), the latest print for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index would be made public. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for the US came in at -0.12 in August 2025, the highest in five months, compared to a downwardly revised -0.28 in July. The Index suggested that economic growth increased in August.
The Existing Home Sales data for the month of September would be announced on the same day. Existing home sales in the United States eased by 0.2% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.00 million in August of 2025, holding the increase in the previous month.
On Friday (14 October 2025), the Inflation Rate for September 2025 would be unveiled. The US annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% in August 2025, the highest since January, after holding at 2.7% in both June and July.
The final reading for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October 2025 period would also be announced on the same day. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US came in at 55 in October 2025, compared to 55.1 in September, preliminary estimates showed.