The domestic equity market is bracing for a turbulent week ahead as escalating geo-political tensions between India and Pakistan cast a shadow over investor sentiment. While the broader structural story for Indian equities remains robust, any further flare-up in tensions could trigger heightened volatility in the near term.
Analysts caution that in the short run, bearish forces may attempt to drag the benchmark index decisively below the 24,000 mark. A sustained break below 23,900 could embolden the bears, leading to increased downside bets. On the flip side, a move above 24,250 may act as a sentiment booster, potentially reigniting buying interest.
Despite the geopolitical jitters, market watchers remain optimistic, pointing to strong domestic macro fundamentals, easing global risks, and steady inflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) as key pillars of support. These underlying strengths are expected to cushion the market and sustain the bullish undertone in the long run—even as it navigates short-term uncertainty.
Several major companies are set to announce their Q4 results in the coming days. On 12th May 2025, Raymond, Tata Steel, and UPL will release their earnings. The following day, 13th May, Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Hero MotoCorp, and Siemens are scheduled to report. On 14th May, the market will hear from Eicher Motors, Lupin, Shree Cement, and Tata Power Company. Wrapping up the week, 15th May will see Q4 results from Abbott India, Godfrey Phillips India, and Godrej Industries. Investors will be closely watching these announcements for cues on sector performance and earnings momentum.
Domestic Cues:
India's consumer price inflation for April will release on Tuesday, 13 May 2025. India's annual inflation rate fell to 3.34% in March of 2025 from the 3.61% in the previous month, to mark a fifth consecutive slowdown to the lowest inflation rate since August 2019.
India's wholesales price inflation for April will release on Wednesday, 14 May 2025. India’s wholesale prices increased by 2.05% year-on-year in March 2025, slowing from a 2.38% growth in February.
India's balance of trade data for April will release on Thursday, 15 May 2025. India recorded a trade deficit of $21.54 billion in March of 2025, widening from the $15.6 billion gap in the corresponding period of the previous year. Imports surged by 11.4% annually to $63.51 billion, the highest ever for the month. In the meantime, exports rose by a much-softer 0.7% to $41.97 billion.
Global Cues:
United States inflation data for April will release on Tuesday, 13 May 2025. The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second consecutive month to 2.4% in March 2025, the lowest since September, down from 2.8% in February.
United States retail sales data for April will release on Thursday, 15 May 2025. Retail sales in the US jumped 1.5% MoM in March 2025 after being unchanged in February, revised data showed. It marked the largest increase in retail sales since January 2023, driven by increase in motor vehicle and parts sales, as consumers appeared to rush purchases ahead of impending auto tariffs.
Fed Chair Powell's speech is on Thursday, 15 May 2025. The Federal Reserve kept the funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% for a third consecutive meeting in May 2025, in line with expectations, as officials adopt a wait-and-see approach amid concerns that President Trump’s tariffs could drive up inflation and slow economic growth.
Japan's GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Preliminary Q1) is on Friday, 16 May 2025. Japan's GDP grew by 0.6% qoq in Q4 2024, below the flash estimate of 0.7% but higher than an upwardly revised 0.4% expansion in Q3, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth.
The U.S. Census Bureau is scheduled to release the preliminary building permits data for April 2025 on Friday, 16 May 2025. Building permits in the United States rose by 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.467 million in March 2025, compared to the preliminary estimate of a 1.6% increase, final data showed.
The U.S. Census Bureau is set to release the April 2025 housing starts data on Friday, 16 May 2025. Housing starts in the US unexpectedly plunged 11.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.324 million in March 2025, the lowest level in four months, and compared to forecasts of 1.42 million dragged down by weak demand and high prices and mortgage rates.
The University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025 is scheduled for release on Friday, 16 May 2025. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 52.2 in April 2025 from a preliminary reading of 50.8, and compared to 57 in March.