The domestic equity market is expected to remain broadly constructive in the coming week, supported by strong domestic fundamentals, easing global risks, and sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows. The Reserve Bank of India’s recent policy easing has placed India in a more favorable cyclical position relative to other emerging markets. This shift in global sentiment has resulted in India attracting disproportionate capital flows compared to its EM peers.
However, market is likely to navigate a complex mix of domestic and international factors in the near term. A key risk that has emerged is the escalation of geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which left 26 people dead. While the long-term structural story for Indian equities remains intact, any further escalation may weigh on sentiment and introduce short-term volatility.
At the same time, the ongoing Q4 earnings season is expected to play a decisive role in shaping market direction. Investors will closely watch corporate results for insights into margin trends, demand visibility, and sector-specific resilience. The earnings trajectory will be particularly important in determining whether markets can build on their recent momentum or enter a consolidation phase.
From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50 index faces a crucial test at the 24,400 level. A sustained move above this resistance could signal the beginning of the next leg of the rally, while failure to break out may lead to range-bound trading in the short term. On the macroeconomic front, conditions remain broadly supportive. FII flows continue to be strong, the Indian rupee has shown relative strength, and crude oil prices have eased—all of which provide a stable backdrop for equities.
A flurry of earnings results is lined up for next week. Avenue Supermarts (DMART), Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India will all release their quarterly results on Saturday, 3 May 2025. The following Monday, 5 May 2025, will see announcements from The Indian Hotels Company and Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M). On Tuesday, 6 May 2025, Bank of Baroda is scheduled to report its earnings. Coal India and Dabur India will follow on Wednesday, 7 May 2025. A busy Thursday, 8 May 2025 features results from Asian Paints, Biocon and Larsen & Toubro. Wrapping up the week, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories is set to release its earnings on Friday, 9 May 2025.
HSBC Composite PMI data (Final) for April will release on Tuesday, 6 May 2025. The HSBC India Composite PMI rose to 60.0 in April 2025 from a final 59.5 in March, flash data showed.
HSBC Services PMI data (Final) for April will release on Tuesday, 6 May 2025. The HSBC India Services PMI increased to 59.1 in April 2025 from 58.5 in the previous month, marking the 45th consecutive month of growth in services activity, according to preliminary estimates.
Global Cues:
United States ISM Services PMI data for April will release on Monday, 5 May 2025. The ISM Services PMI fell sharply to 50.8 in March 2025 from 53.5 in February. The reading pointed to the softest expansion in the services sector since June last year.
The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, 7 May 2025. While a rate cut this time around is highly unlikely, market chatter suggests a June cut is very much on the table.
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% during its March 2025 meeting, extending the pause in its rate-cut cycle that began in January, in line with expectations. The Fed also raised their expectations for inflation for 2025 and 2026 and downgraded their 2025 growth forecasts, while still anticipating reducing interest rates by around 50 bps this year, the same as in the December projection.
China's balance of trade data for April is due on Friday, 9 May 2025. China's trade surplus surged to $102.64 billion in March 2025, up from $58.65 billion in the same period a year earlier. The sharp increase was largely driven by a 12.4% year-on-year surge in exports, the fastest rise since last October, as factories rushed to ship goods ahead of U.S. President Trump's tariffs.