Indian stock market is expected to remain under pressure next week due to continued foreign fund outflows (FII selling) and weak corporate earnings, particularly for mid and small-cap companies. Concerns about tariffs and a depreciating rupee are also contributing to the negative sentiment. While recent Modi-Trump talks offer some hope for a trade deal, sustained market recovery is unlikely until FII selling abates. This will likely require a weaker dollar and lower US bond yields. The current trend of investors favoring large-cap stocks over mid and small caps is expected to continue.
According to NSDL data, FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 21034.83 crore (so far) in the secondary market during February 2025. This follows their sale of shares worth Rs 81903.72 crore in January 2024.
The minutes from the last RBI's monetary policy meeting will release on Friday, 21 February 2025. The Reserve Bank of India unanimously lowered its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% during its February meeting, marking the first reduction since May 2020 and aligning with market consensus.
HSBC Composite, Services and Manufacturing PMI Flash data for February will release on Friday, 21 February 2025.
The HSBC India Composite PMI stood at 57.7 in January 2025, below the flash reading of 57.9 and December's figure of 59.2.
The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI for January 2025 came in at 57.7, below the initial estimate of 58, market forecasts of 57.8, and December’s 56.4.
The HSBC India Services PMI was revised lower to 56.5 in January 2025, down from 56.8 in the preliminary estimates and declining from the highest reading in four months in December of 59.3.
Global cues:
Japan's preliminary Q4 GDP growth rate (quarter-over-quarter) is scheduled for Monday, 17 February 2025. Japan's GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q4 will release on Monday, 17 February 2025. Japan's GDP expanded by 0.3% qoq in Q3 2024, above flash data and market forecasts of 0.2%.
Japan's balance of trade data for January will release on Wednesday, 19 February 2025. Japan’s trade surplus soared to JPY 130.94 billion in December 2024 from JPY 32.35 billion in the same month a year earlier, beating market estimates of a deficit of JPY 55 billion.
US Building Permits preliminary data for January 2025 is scheduled for Wednesday, 19 February 2025. Building permits in the United States decreased by 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.482 million in December of 2024, final data showed.
US Housing Starts data for January 2025 is scheduled for Wednesday, 19 February 2025. Housing stars in the United States surged by 15.8% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.499 Million units in December of 2024, the most since March 2021.
US FOMC minutes will release on Thursday, 20 February 2025. The Federal Reserve kept the fed funds rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range during its January 2025 meeting, in line with expectations.
Japan's inflation data for January 2025 is scheduled for Friday, 21 February 2025. The annual inflation rate in Japan jumped to 3.6% in December 2024 from 2.9% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023.
US Existing Home Sales data for January 2025 is scheduled for Friday, 21 February 2025. Existing home sales in the US rose by 2.2% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.38 million units in December of 2024, the most since February 2024.