Brent crude has already surged to $78 per barrel, and further escalation could send prices soaring even higher. The market's direction will largely depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict, but in the near term, a risk-off mood is likely to dominate trading floors.

From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 index is hovering precariously. A decisive drop below the 24,500 mark could trigger a sharper selloff, while a bounce from this support zone might lift the index back toward 25,100 in the near term.

Traders are advised to tread cautiously. With volatility expected to remain elevated, a balanced strategy with positions on both the long and short side could help navigate choppy waters. Sector-specific and thematic plays may continue to offer selective opportunities, but aggressive bets should be avoided. Risk management remains key.

India's WPI inflation data for May will be released on Monday, 16 June 2025. India’s wholesale prices rose by 0.85% yoy in April 2025, down from a 2.05% increase in March and below market expectations of a 1.76% rise.

On Friday, 20 June 2025, the RBI will release the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting, along with infrastructure output data for May. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly lowered its key repo rate by 50 bps to 5.50% at its May meeting, while shifting its policy stance from accommodative to neutral.

Global Cues:

China's industrial production and retail sales data will release on Monday, 16 June 2025. China's industrial production grew by 6.1% year-on-year in April 2025. However, the latest figure eased from the 7.7% growth recorded in March.

China's retail sales increased by 5.1% yoy in April 2025, moderating from March's over 1-year high of 5.9%.

Japan's central bank will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday, 17 June 2025. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during its May meeting, maintaining the highest level since 2008. The unanimous decision came amid rising concerns that U.S. President Trump's tariff measures could dampen both U.S. and global economic growth.

The US will release its retail sales month-on-month data for May on Tuesday, 17 June 2025. US retail sales rose by 0.1% mom in April 2025, following an upwardly revised 1.7% surge in March.

Japan's balance of trade data for May will be released on Wednesday, 18 June 2025. Japan's trade deficit decreased significantly to JPY 115.85 billion in April 2025 from JPY 504.69 billion in the same month a year earlier, though it missed market expectations for a JPY 227.1 billion surplus.

The US will publish its building permits and housing starts data for May on Wednesday, 18 June 2025. Building permits in the United States fell by 4% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.422 million in April 2025, revised upward from the preliminary estimate of 1.412 million.

US housing starts rose 1.6% month-over-month in April 2025 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.361 million, rebounding from an upwardly revised 10.1% decline in March.

The US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and FOMC economic projections on Wednesday, 18 June 2025. Fed officials assessed that the announced tariff increases had been significantly larger and more extensive than anticipated and noted considerable uncertainty surrounding the direction of trade policy and the magnitude, scope, timing, and duration of its economic effects, minutes from the May FOMC meeting showed.

The US Fed Chair will hold a press conference on Thursday, 19 June 2025.

Japan's inflation rate for May will be released on Friday, 20 June 2025. Japan's annual inflation rate stood at 3.6% in April 2025, unchanged from March while remaining at its lowest print since December.