The domestic stock market remains under pressure as global headwinds take center stage. A sharp decline in US markets and fresh concerns over potential pharma tariffs have dampened sentiment, paving the way for a time-wise correction. If Nifty slips below 22,900, the index could drift toward 22,676, while a decisive move above 23,100 would signal a strong uptrend.
Despite near-term volatility, domestic economic fundamentals remain robust, with RBI’s supportive policies acting as a cushion. The upcoming Q4 earnings season will be a key driver of market direction. The ongoing tug-of-war between FIIs and DIIs, alongside external factors like crude oil prices and the dollar’s strength, will continue to shape sentiment in the week ahead.
Domestic Cues:
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s monetary policy committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet during April 7 to 9, 2025. In its previous meeting, the MPC voted to reduce the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points with immediate effect.
India's industrial production data for February will release on Friday, 11 April 2025. IIP grew by 5.0% year-on-year in January 2025, following a revised 3.5% expansion in December.
India's annual inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March is due on Friday, 11 April 2025. India’s annual inflation rate dropped to 3.62% in February 2025, down from a revised 4.26% in the previous month.
Global Cues:
Japan's consumer confidence data for March will release on 9 April 2025. The consumer confidence index in Japan unexpectedly declined to 35.0 in February 2025, down from 35.2 in the previous month.
The US FOMC minutes will be released on 9 April 2025. In its March 2025 meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%-4.5%, maintaining the pause in its rate-cut cycle that began in January—aligning with market expectations.
China's consumer price inflation data for March will release on Thursday, 10 April 2025. China's consumer prices dropped by 0.7% yoy in February 2025, reversing a 0.5% rise in the prior month.
US inflation data for March will release on Thursday, 10 April 2025. Core consumer prices in the United States, which exclude items linked to food and energy, rose by 0.2% from the previous month in February of 2025 from the 10-month high of 0.4% in the previous month.
United States Producer Price Inflation data for March will release on Friday, 11 April 2025. Producer prices in the US were unchanged in February from January 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.6% rise in the previous period.
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for April will release on Friday, 11 April 2025. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 57 in March 2025 from a preliminary of 57.9, and well below 64.7 in February.