Market heads into the new week riding high on the RBI's unexpectedly bold move, a 50 basis point rate cut that landed like confetti on Dalal Street. While the surprise CRR cut added extra cheer, the central bank’s lower inflation forecast (now 3.7% for the year, down from 4%) and steady confidence in growth have further sweetened the mood.
The move is being read as front-loading of policy action, even though the stance turned a tad more cautious. Traders are already adjusting their lenses, rotating into rate-sensitive names like banks, NBFCs, and autos, while themes like railways continue to chug along with investor interest.
From a strategy perspective, it is shaping up to be a "buy on dips" kind of week, with a tilt toward quality stock picking. Rotational plays may keep things interesting across broader sectors.
On the technical front, resistance for Nifty 50 index is placed at 25,150. A move above this level could set the stage for the index to rally towards 25350. On the downside, support is placed at 24,850.
Domestic Cues:
India's retail inflation data for May will release on Thursday, 12 June 2025. The annual inflation rate in India fell to 3.16% in April of 2025, the lowest since July of 2019, from 3.34% in the previous month.
India's trade data for May will release on Friday, 13 June 2025. India recorded a trade deficit of $26.42 billion in April of 2025, widening from $19.1 billion from the corresponding period of the previous year to mark the sharpest gap since the record-high from November of 2024. Imports surged by 19.12% annually to $64.91 billion. In turn, exports grew at a softer 9.03% annually to $38.49 billion.
Global Cues:
China's inflation and trade data for May will release on Monday, 9 June 2025.
China's consumer prices dropped by 0.1% year-on-year in April 2025, maintaining the same pace for the second month.
China's trade surplus jumped to $96.18 billion in April 2025, up from $72.04 billion in the same period a year earlier. The sharp increase was largely driven by an 8.1% year-on-year rise in exports. Meanwhile, imports fell by 0.2%.
US inflation data for May will release on Wednesday, 11 June 2025. The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.3% in April 2025, the lowest since February 2021, from 2.4% in March.
US producer price index (PPI) data for May will release on Thursday, 12 June 2025. US producer prices fell by 0.5% in April 2025, following a revised flat reading in March.
US preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment data for June will release on Friday, 13 June 2025. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised sharply higher to 52.2 in May 2025 from a preliminary of 50.8, matching the value for April, and holding at 2022-lows.