Trading sentiment is likely to remain fragile next week, as persistent global economic uncertainties and U.S. tariff concerns continue to pressure investor confidence. Analysts observe that the current market correction lacks a defined bottom, with sticky U.S. inflation, Federal Reserve rate cut hesitancy, and proposed tariffs fueling investor anxiety. The ongoing divergence between FII selling and DII buying, coupled with U.S. dollar strength and fluctuating crude oil prices, will be critical factors in the week ahead.
The final HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February is scheduled for release on Monday, 3 March 2025. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI fell to 57.1 in February 2025, down from 57.7 in the previous month, according to preliminary estimates.
The final HSBC Composite PMI and Services PMI for February will release on Wednesday, 5 March 2025. The HSBC India Composite PMI increased to 60.6 in February 2025 from 57.7 in the previous month, flash data showed. The HSBC India Services PMI increased to 61.1 in February 2025, up from 56.5 in the previous month, which was the softest pace since November 2022, preliminary estimates showed.
Global Cues:
China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for February will release on Monday, 3 March 2025. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1 in January 2025, less than market consensus and December's print of 50.5.
The United States ISM Manufacturing PMI for February will release on Monday, 3 March 2025. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US rose to 50.9 in January 2025 from a downwardly revised 49.2 in December 2024.
Japan will release its Consumer Confidence data for February on Tuesday, 4 March 2025. The consumer confidence index in Japan decreased to 35.2 in January 2025, down from 36.2 in the previous month.
The United States ISM Services PMI for February will release on Wednesday, 5 March 2025. The ISM Services PMI for the US declined to 52.8 in January 2025 from a downwardly revised 54 in December 2024.
China will release its Balance of Trade, Exports YoY, and Imports YoY figures for January-February on Friday, 7 March 2025. China's trade surplus soared to $104.84 billion in December 2024, up from $75.31 billion in the same period a year earlier, surpassing expectations of $99.80 billion. Exports from China surged by 10.7% yoy in December 2024, accelerating from a 6.7% rise in the previous month. Imports to China rose by 1.0% yoy to a 27-month high of USD 230.79 billion in December 2024, reversing a 3.9% fall in November.
The United States will release its non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate figures for February on Friday, 7 March 2025. The US economy added 143K jobs in January 2025, well below an upwardly revised 307K gain in December. The US unemployment rate dipped by 0.1 percentage point to 4.0% in January 2025, marking its lowest level since May.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech is due on Friday, 7 March 2025, which could provide clues about the U.S. monetary easing cycle. A majority of Fed policymakers acknowledged that the high level of uncertainty warranted a cautious approach when considering further adjustments to monetary policy, minutes from the January 2025 FOMC meeting showed.