Investors are gearing up for a volatile week, with an eye on key domestic and global economic data expected to influence market sentiment.
Among the top priorities for investors will be the release of Q2 corporate earnings. Global markets will also be under scrutiny, with investors monitoring developments in major economies like the United States and China. Any significant shifts in these markets could have a ripple effect on Indian equities.
The rupee-dollar exchange rate remains a crucial factor to watch. Crude oil prices, a key driver of inflation, will also be closely followed. A rise in oil prices could put upward pressure on inflation, affecting corporate margins and consumer spending.
Investors will also be keeping an eye on the activity of foreign and domestic investors. Their buying or selling pressure can significantly influence market direction.
Finally, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to be a source of uncertainty. Any escalation or de-escalation of the situation could have a substantial impact on global markets, including Indian equities.
India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation numbers for September will be declared on Monday, 14 October 2024. India’s wholesale prices increased by 1.31% year-on-year in August 2024, easing from a 2.04% gain in July. It marked the 10th consecutive period of wholesale inflation but the softest pace since April.
India's consumer price index (CPI) inflation numbers for September will also be declared on Monday, 14 October 2024. The CPI inflation increased to 3.65% in August 2024 from an upwardly revised 3.6% in July, which was the lowest since August 2019.
India's Balance of Trade data for for September will release on Tuesday, 15 October 2024. The merchandise trade deficit in India widened to $29.7 billion in August 2024, the highest in ten months, and above $24 billion a year earlier. Exports sank 9.3% year-on-year to $34.71 billion.
Global Cues:
The European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision is scheduled for Thursday, October 17, 2024. On the same day, ECB President Lagarde will give a speech. The ECB reduced the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% in September, continuing the trend from a similar rate cut in June.
India's Balance of Trade data for September will release on Thursday, 17 October 2024. Japan’s trade deficit decreased to JPY 695.30 billion in August 2024 from JPY 940.10 billion in the same month a year earlier, but it was still above market expectations of a JPY 1,380 billion shortfall.
US retail sales data for September will release on Thursday, 17 October 2024. Retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% month-over-month in August 2024, following an upwardly revised 1.1% surge in July, signalling consumer spending remains relatively strong.
Japan's inflation data for September will release on Friday, 18 October 2024. The annual inflation rate in Japan rose to 3.0% in August 2024 from 2.8% in the prior three months, pointing to the highest level since October 2023.
China's Q3 GDP data will release on Friday, 18 October 2024. The Chinese economy expanded 4.7% yoy in Q2 of 2024, slowing from a 5.3% growth in Q1. It was the weakest yearly advance since Q1 of 2023, amid a persistent property downturn, weak domestic demand, falling yuan, and trade frictions with the West.
China's industrial production data for September will release on Friday, 18 October 2024. China’s industrial production rose by 4.5% yoy in August 2024, slowing from a 5.1% increase in July. It was the softest expansion in industrial output since March, marking the fourth straight month of a slowdown, due to the disruption caused by extreme weather this summer.
China's retail sales data for September will release on Friday, 18 October 2024. China's retail sales expanded by 2.1% year-on-year in August 2024, moderating from a 2.7% growth in the prior month.