Indian equity markets head into the holiday-shortened week with consolidation dominating sentiment, as the Nifty50 and Sensex trimmed weekly gains amid profit-taking and thin year-end trading volumes. Benchmarks rose marginally over the week but saw profit booking at record highs, reflecting investor caution in the absence of fresh catalysts.
The rupee remained stable near 89.83 against the U.S. dollar, aided by state-bank interventions, even as the Chinese yuan outperformed, highlighting divergent currency dynamics that could impact import costs and FII flows. Globally, surging gold prices reached record highs, prompting shifts in investor positioning and risk sentiment that may influence risk assets.
On the policy front, India and New Zealand finalized a free trade agreement, underscoring efforts to diversify export markets amid global trade uncertainties.
Given muted liquidity, markets may remain range-bound, with select cyclicals and exporters offering relative value while investors await clearer macro cues in early 2026.
In India, the Industrial Production data for the month of November would be announced on Monday (29 December 2025). The Industrial production in India increased 0.4% year-on-year in October 2025, following an upwardly revised 4.6% gain in September. It marks the smallest annual growth rate since August 2024 when industrial output stalled.
On Tuesday (30 December 2025), the M3 Money Supply figures for the week ended on December 12 would be made public. The Money Supply M3 in India increased to Rs 291,363.75 billion in the week ending November 28 from Rs 289,454.93 billion two weeks before.
On Wednesday (31 December 2025), the government budget value for November 2025 would be announced. India recorded a government budget deficit of Rs 825,144 tens of million in October of 2025.
India’s external debt position at the end of third quarter for FY26 would be made public on the same day. The external debt in India increased to $747200 million in the second quarter of 2025 from $736300 million in the first quarter of 2025.
On Friday (02 January 2026), the final reading for the HSBC Manufacturing PMI for December would be unveiled. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI eased to 55.7 in December 2025 from 56.6 in November, marking the weakest improvement in manufacturing conditions since December 2023, according to preliminary estimates.
The Foreign Exchange Reserves for the week ended on December 26 would be made public on the same day. Foreign Exchange Reserves in India increased to $688,950 million in December 12 from $687,260 million in the previous week.
In China, PMI data releases would be in focus, with the NBS Manufacturing PMI, NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI and the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI would be released on Wednesday (31 December 2025).
China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.2 in November 2025 from October’s six-month low of 49.0.
China’s official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 in November 2025 from 50.1 in the previous month, pointing to the lowest figure since December 2022 and the first decline in nearly three years.
The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 in November 2025 from 50.6 in the previous month, hitting its lowest level since July.
In United States, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for December 2025 would be released on Monday (29 December 2025). The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index for Texas manufacturing fell to -10.4 in November 2025, from -5 in the prior, signaling a fourth consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June.
Monday would also see the release of advanced estimates of Goods Trade Balance for the month of November. The US trade deficit in goods narrowed by $17.3 billion from the previous month to $85.5 billion in August 2025, according to an advance estimate. Imports fell 7.0% month-on-month to $261.6 billion, while exports fell 1.3% to $176.1 billion.
On Wednesday (31 December 2025), the FOMC Minutes for its December meeting would be made public. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in its December 2025 meeting, following similar reductions in September and October.
The API Crude Oil Stock Change for the week ended on December 26 would be made public would also be released on Wednesday. US crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending December 19th, 2025, marking the first build after four weeks of draws and following the sharpest decrease since June of 9.3 million-barrel the previous week.
The Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended on December 27 would also be announced on the same day. Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 10,000 from the previous week to 214,000 on the period ending December 20th, around the commonly volatile holiday season for new claims.