Indian equities head into the next trading week under marked pressure and elevated volatility after a sharp late-week sell-off. Domestic benchmarks ended the week on a significantly weaker note, with the Nifty dipping below 25,500 and the Sensex dropping over 1,000 pts amid broad-based weakness, including tech and cyclical stocks.
Retail inflation in India rose to 2.75% in January, the first print under a revamped CPI series and within the RBI’s target band — a factor that may temper expectations of near-term monetary easing. The rupee remained under strain, trading weaker against the U.S. dollar amid risk-off sentiment.
Globally, markets retreated from record highs as concerns around tech earnings and cautious positioning ahead of U.S. inflation data weighed on sentiment.
With macro headwinds and policy uncertainties lingering, large-caps and defensive sectors could remain in foucs as investors continue to monitor global inflation cues and earnings signals for directional clarity.
In India, Wholesales Price Index data for the month of January would be released on Monday (16 February 2026). India’s wholesale prices increased 0.83% year-on-year in December 2025, rebounding from a 0.32% drop recorded in November. This marked the first increase in three months and the fastest pace since April, mainly supported by faster rises in manufacturing prices.
The Balance of Trade data for January 2026 would also be announced on the same day. The merchandise trade balance in India widened to $25 billion in December of 2025 from $20.6 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year, marking the sharpest trade gap for the month on record. Imports rose by 8.8% from the previous year to $63.6 billion while exports grew by 1.8% to $38.5 billion.
On Wednesday (18 February 2026), the M3 Money Supply figures for the week ended on February 06 would be made public. Money Supply M3 in India increased to 322144.23 INR Billion in the week ending December 31 from 246833.33 INR Billion two weeks before.
On Friday, the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI and the Composite PMI for the month of February would be released.
The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.4 in January 2026 from 55.0 in December, but was revised lower from the initial estimate of 56.8. The reading still indicates a solid improvement in operating conditions at the start of the year.
The HSBC India Services PMI was revised lower to 58.5 in January 2026 from a preliminary estimate of 59.3. However, the latest figure remained above the December reading of 58.0, which marked the softest expansion in 11 months, supported by faster growth in output and new business.
India’s Composite PMI by HSBC came in at 58.4 in January 2026, below the flash print of 59.5 yet higher than December’s 11-month low of 57.8. The figure points to a solid pace of expansion, driven by improved momentum among goods producers and service providers.
In China, the preliminary reading for the current account deficit for the fourth quarter would be announced on Saturday (14 February 2026). China’s current account surplus jumped to a record $198.7 billion in the third quarter of 2025, exceeding an initial estimate of $195.6 billion and up sharply from $157.4 billion in the same period last year.
On Monday (16 February 2026), the year-to-date (YTD) FDI data for the period ended in January 2026 would be made public. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China fell 9.5% to CNY 747.77 billion in 2025, following a sharp 24.7% decline in 2024 and marking the third consecutive year of contraction.
On Tuesday (24 February 2026), the loan prime rate for one-year and five-year tenors would be unveiled. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept key lending rates at record lows for an eighth consecutive month in January after earlier reductions to the central bank’s relending and rediscount facility rates had already taken effect. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) remained at 3.0%, while the five-year LPRwas unchanged at 3.5%.
In the United States, the ADP Employment Change Weekly figures would be announced on Tuesday (17 February 2026). US private employers added an average of 6,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending January 24, 2026, up from 5,000 in the prior period, according to ADP Research.
Tuesday would also see the release of the NAHB Housing Market Index for the month of February. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 37.0 in January 2026, down from 39.0 in December.
On Wednesday (18 February 2026), the Industrial Production data for the month of January would be made public. Industrial production in the United States rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, the same as in November.
On Thursday (19 February 2026), the FOMC Minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve Meeting would be made public. The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in its January 2026 meeting after three consecutive rate cuts last year that pushed borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022.
The Balance of Trade data for the month of December would also be released on Thursday. The trade deficit in the US widened sharply to $56.8 billion in November 2025, the highest in four months, compared to a $29.2 billion gap in October which was the lowest since 2009.
On Friday (20 February 2026), the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for the month of December would be announced. The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy increased by 0.2% month over month in November 2025, unchanged from October, according to delayed data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Friday would also see the release of advanced estimates for the fourth quarter GDP. The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.4% in Q3 2025, slightly above the initial estimate of 4.3% and marking the strongest GDP growth since Q3 2023.